Depending on which numbers you look at (infections or deaths), these lag 2-3 weeks, and up to 4 weeks. It takes time for these measures to take effect.

April was bad for the US, because of delayed responses in March based on limited testing data. May will likely be better.

And based on what the experts are saying and all their models... it looks like from mid-May we will might about 2-3 months of a lull before the next big wave. Now the problem is with a complete lockdown, the vast majority of the population will still be susceptible for that wave.

Of course in that time, you still practice measures like hand-washing, wearing masks, maintaining distance, limiting travel, avoiding crowds while testing capacity (both virological and serological) is built up and contact tracers are hired. Lockdowns can't extend to a vaccine.

My best guess is that we will have some drugs, but none of them will work for 90-95% of people (with only mild side effects) for those to be game-changers. We were all unprepared for this first wave and so that first lockdown was absolutely necessary.

In the history of mankind, only two diseases have successfully been eradicated (and only one of them, smallpox was a human disease). Both were achieved through vaccines. Nearly all experts think SARS-CoV-2 will become endemic, though a much lower-grade disease in a few years.

But we also have to be positive. There have been many pandemics, which have led to endemic diseases. This is the first time in human history that we have reacted with this speed and determination. And the pace of discovery is breathtaking. This is quite remarkable in itself.

We will continue to focus on what we could've done in January and February, and rightly so. That time was squandered. But from March to now, the entire world changed, almost all at once. Millions of words will be written about just about these two months. Changed all our lives.