Thread with thoughts on the (still small?) new outbreak in China, as well as how they're adapting to a post-corona world.

First, the Harbin outbreak is claimed to have been triggered by return migration, and detected at the level of dozens of cases.
http://archive.is/LBKzy  https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1252021771919712256

How was the Harbin outbreak detected and contained?

We can guess that it likely involves China's digital quarantine, which uses WeChat and Alipay to give every citizen routinely updated red/yellow/green color codes.
http://archive.is/gDgfb#selection-2743.503-2743.740
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1224240957031419904

In the West, only Google, Apple, Facebook have the scale to do something like this.

They could push the app it to all Android & iOS devices. Though keeping it up-to-date with accurate data is nontrivial. As is doing it in a privacy preserving way. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1237470083783495682

Other aspects of the postvirus China worth thinking about.

One is the total reversal of fortune for the sharing economy vis-a-vis buying a car.

The long-term trend towards less car ownership may get reversed.

Perhaps autonomy fixes this? But you're still sharing.

Insofar as Wuhan is at least a few months ahead of the West, what's going on there may give some hint as to our future.

First, the new normal is socially distanced.

Second, when people are buying, they appear to be getting things they *need* & that give individual sovereignty.

This is one implementation of red zone/green zone at the level of an individual. Red code, yellow code, green code.

Keeping your code green opens up normal economic life and travel.

Means that the testing & data pipeline for updating these codes is critically important!

We don't know the accuracy of their antibody tests, but even in Wuhan's Leishenshan hospital — a freshly built one devoted to the most serious coronavirus patients — it looks like only 3% of staff came back positive.

[If Wang has written a paper, it'd be great to read it!]

I'd quibble with the first sentence below, as China's economic boom really started in 1978 when Deng took power and steered the country out of Maoism.

But take note of the bit below. This is really the most important global event since World War 2. Touches every person on earth.

The virus may end the late 20th century way of life.

Large physical gatherings of strangers will be viewed with concern from here on out. That means political rallies, concerts, events, restaurants, dense cities.

The only hygienic gatherings are online.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1246151098986983424