Been thinking a lot about the next leg of the crash:
Bonds typically lead, which we may see by the whole US yield curve going to 0%, meanwhile the dollar will get weaker during this. The yield curve may even invert w/ 30Y bonds going negative while Fed funds stay at 0%
/1

The 30Y bond yields may go deeply negative (-2%), and the bonds them self are soar up in price. The yield curve becomes inverted as the crash continues.
Now the Fed may adjust Fed funds rate to -2% or lower here to help normalize the curve.
/2

Now in the mid-phase, the USD gets strong, extremely strong, which helps normalize the yield curve as well. But note the USD may have lost a lot of ground in the first 1/2, or 1/3 of this leg of the crash.
/3

Why does this matter?
Because of the ORDER OF EVENTS. If you know the that, you can make 100x more than being in a position too early where it goes against you and you’re missing huge moves, with your capital tied up in a non-performing position.
/4

I think the bullish USD trade will be HUGE. BUT it may be 10x cheaper 1-3 weeks into the next leg of the crash.
I’m not saying that’s the case for sure, I’m still running mental scenarios to gain the best clarity possible leading in this.
/5

I welcome your thoughts on this thread if you’re inclined, good to think about anyway—

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