1/ It has been humbling to watch the bull and bear thesis be both right and wrong based on price in the last 1.5 months (depending on the week!). From the broad market down to the security level. $SPY $QQQ

2/ What is funny/sad is to watch both sides on #fintwit declare victory and ridicule the other at every turn as though they had everything nailed from the virus impact, fundamental trends to government intervention from the get go.

3/Because NO ONE really knows, investors are forced into simple forms of decision making (simple does not mean wrong/bad) and chase what is working. Leverage = bad. Quality = good. Price is reflexive, confirmation bias kicks in and the algos amplify it.

Works in both directions.

4/ A decade plus of BTFD and easy money has rewired the brains of many investors. The value is dead mentality. Investors have been compensated handsomely for making obviously terrible investment decisions from a value/cash flow perspective.

5/ In many cases, underwriting 30+ years of growth and flawless execution into current valuations.

Many investors confusing beta with alpha.

Fighting this trend has been to the demise of many legendary value investors and "smart" people.

6/ I think most intellectually honest investors would agree with most of this. It is not hard to see the excess in valuations and obvious bubble behavior, especially TMT land.

7/ But with so much liquidity in the system and limited capital stock, money has to find a home somewhere. And so it becomes a game of relative value and forces investors into making poor absolute investment decisions based "true value". Whatever that may be...

8/ Central banks are committed to keeping the party going forever. The answer to all problems is more debt.

Who knows how long it will continue. Time will tell if it even matters, and if this is truly a new investment paradigm we are living in.