So let me explain more about what I meant by this.

Polls across the board show Trumps numbers steady (or slightly up with black voters) and marginally up with Latinos (about 5-10 points depending on the poll and the state) https://twitter.com/ryangirdusky/status/1253913353115906048

Texas has a different problem than most states. Blue staters are migrating to the Lone Star state and bringing their politics with them, turning Texas bluer.

@helloitsthao has a great tweet somewhere about recent migrants to Texas vote 2-to-1 Democrat.

But there are 3 kinds of white voters Trump has a problem with now

1) Obama/Trump voters, who voted on immigration, war, and trade and feel betrayed & aren't loyal to the GOP or Democrat party. They're the ones who broke the blue wall

2) Women... they just don't like him. I don't know if there's anyway of getting past other than making a vote for Joe Biden as toxic. But I've seen some polls where college educated white women have a lower approval of him than Hispanic men. That's a problem

3) Boomers... there his base and yet he's losing ground. I don't believe the polls on how much b/c they are oversampling women. Still, he's losing ground. And that could be for any number of reasons that I haven't explored yet.

Anyway beating Biden isn't going to be the same as beating Hillary. America had 25 years of hating Hillary, it's not the same with Biden. I don't care if he's senile, he's not Trump is how many voters are looking at the race.

And as much as Trump talked about black unemployment or Hispanic homeownership or females in the work place. He can't win if he gains 6% of them but loses 5% of whites in the process.

He needs to gain some ground w/ suburban voters & rebuild his base with blue collar whites

And more than anything they voted on immigration, economic populism, and wars.

Too much has been status quo in his first term.

Last tweet: I'm not saying he can't reverse those trends, i'm not saying he can't win, and please save your tweets about all polls in 2016 being wrong.

He can reverse those trends and win in 2020 but he has to start very very very soon.

this has been my Ted Talk.. and if you want to read more about national populism you can pre-order my upcoming book on the subject
https://www.amazon.com/Theyre-Not-Listening-National-Revolution/dp/1642934992/ref=sr_1_9?dchild=1&keywords=they%27re+not+listening&qid=1587830983&sr=8-9

last thing, the poll has Texas +5 for Trump... I think it's higher b/c it probably under samples rural whites. I'd say it's R+7-+9.