Maybe it's the alarming amount of salt coursing through my blood at present, but here's my "excessively negative" take on the big parks and the chances of them opening this year:

I don't think it's going to happen, and here's why:

Disney and Universal do BIG numbers.

Even if they cap attendance, shutter a bunch of hotels, and totally alter the theme park experience as we know it, they'll still see guest counts around 7-10K per day, per park.

With those kinds of figures, it is *INEVITABLE* that someone will spread COVID-19 at Disney or Universal. It is INEVITABLE that an employee, or guest, or both will contract it.

I mean, really think about all the interactions employees have with guests at theme parks. How can an employee reliably check a heigh from 6+ feet away? How are employees going to put down and check lap bars?

Someone will have it. And someone will spread it. And hundreds, if not thousands of people will contract it as a result.

And there's your headline for at LEAST twenty-four hours: "Disney and/or Universal re-opened against expert advice and now a guest or employee has Coronavirus and we don't know how many other thousands of guests and employees it's been spread to..."

God forbid that guest or employee die from COVID-19 or related complications. Then the story will carry another few news cycle.

Every time a new confirmed-infected patient is identified as having traveled to the parks, we'll hear about it.

In the face of this, the big parks will have no choice but to simply close again, because the public outcry and backlash will be IMMENSE.

You think that interview with the Las Vegas Mayor was bad? Imagine a Disney exec getting eviscerated by Anderson Cooper for putting profits ahead of people.

And whether that shame works or not, the reality is... the public will see that it's extremely risky to visit a theme park, and they may just fail to show up.

Because let's be honest, it'll take proof of spread and possibly death to trigger this realization, sadly.

So now you've got big parks under pressure to close and stay closed, coupled with them carrying the news in a very bad way for possible weeks in a row. All damaging public opinion on theme park vacations until there's a widespread available cure.

So no, I don't see the parks opening this year, and frankly, well into next year. Until there's a vaccine or significant improvement in therapies for managing the disease while you're battling it.

And that's just a microscopic look at it, honestly.

Beyond the "Well that sucks, my vacation will be cancelled!" complaint, the economic damage (internally and externally) will badly weaken Disney. Maybe not Comcast. But Disney, definitely.

I think people miss the point by a mile when they say things like, "It's worth being inconvenienced to save lives". And for sure... it is.

But we're not really talking about "inconvenience" anymore.

We're talking about a decade-plus-long global economic depression that could result in things like mass homelessness, long lines for rationed staples like bread and milk, a significant reduction in the USA's overall health due to extreme poverty, along w/ a sharp rise in crime.

This isn't really conjecture. It's been written out and predicted by a variety of first-rate, upstanding journalists in mainstream publications with no political affiliation.

There's simply not going to be a place in society for "theme parks" in a world like this. I mean, they can slash prices and make a vacation more affordable than ever, but it's impossible to sell vacations to a country with 30% unemployment.

And anyone who managed to keep a job is going to look/feel like a fool trying to visit Disneyland while the world around them is in utter shambles.

So that's my wild, negative take.

Maybe things will start to reopen and we'll be able to salvage the economy while limiting spread?

But I just don't see the parks opening as part of that effort, when they're considered frivolous entertainment with high Coronavirus risk.

@threadreaderapp unroll