Will Bolsonaro be impeached?

Pretty clear there’s no quorum yet in Congress. PR has recently shored up support from key Centrão bloc with offers of pork, jobs. Left fractured. Others w/ republican view Brasilia should focus on pandemic instead.

But I would watch 3 variables:

1) How much Bolsonaro’s heretofore solid 30% support base cracks up post-Moro

2) Investigations against family that may have led president to oust Federal Police chief

3) The virus & its human & economic toll

All could blow up in matter of weeks - or days.

For a very good article on current dynamic in Centrão

https://twitter.com/leandrocolon/status/1254019774360805379?s=21 https://twitter.com/leandrocolon/status/1254019774360805379

Re-reading this, I’m reminded how looooong it took Congress - and specifically Centrão - to get on board the impeachment train back in 2015-16. Even Temer spent months publicly urging against it. Interesting in today’s context

https://twitter.com/brazilbrian/status/1254024072360574976?s=21 https://twitter.com/brazilbrian/status/1254024072360574976