The best thing China could do for the world is open their books and show ‘revised’ raw data that looks more plausible. At the the same time, the people saying it’s all fake don’t account for China eradicating COVID19 from EU-level heights even if you assume a 2-3x undercount. https://twitter.com/mitchblatt/status/1253979426162970625
However, the higher you raise China’s peak numbers, though, the further back in time you have to start the outbreak. All the data lines up with it starting sometime in November, but not being significantly noticable in Wuhan until the end of December

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253589061794590721?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253589061794590721
I keep seeing people hit a cognitive wall over the fact that, yes, there was 100% an early coverup. It lasted about three weeks, but then the containment and eradication policies snapped in on a timeline unseen anywhere outside of Asia
https://twitter.com/alchemytoday/status/1253982963185922048?s=21 https://twitter.com/alchemytoday/status/1253982963185922048
The lost time during the coverup = they started at 7k/day more infections when Wuhan went on lockdown. A week later CQ begins. Wuhan was about where Florida or Georiga is today on Jan 23rd. That’s very, very difficult for a lot of people to wrap their heads around.
OK, fine... let’s go through that thought experiment. It starts in October. The Wuhan doc whistleblowers are lying that they didn’t notice a new disease in late December, it was actually late November. No travel restrictions yet, completely uncontained...

https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/1253983420725813248?s=21 https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/1253983420725813248
On this timeline, how is it contained now in HK? We had bullet trains from Wuhan until Feb 1. How does it not spread all over the world at almost the same time? How to explain Second Wave (US/UK/EU) accounting for >90% of the numbers and strains over here?
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253986152438067200?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253986152438067200
correction: HSR trains from Wuhan stopped when lockdown went up (Jan 23), but continued from across China until Feb when the HK/CN border was [mostly] shut. Point being, an October starting point and uncontained until late Jan = HK would have been NYC last month. And yet...
It’s a tiring recursive loop of “they lied! It’s all fake!” with a refusal to actual outline a plausible scenario of what they *think* happens that aligns with anything else seen in places where the data is more trustworthy. Even adding 2-3x isn’t enough.

https://twitter.com/alchemytoday/status/1253982533076779008?s=21 https://twitter.com/alchemytoday/status/1253982533076779008
It has to be 8x this week to match the US. It’ll be 20x next month. And it’s still might be raging for them!, despite even Wuhan re-opened now.
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