There is clearly a desperation to leave the lockdown behind. The economic impact is horrendous and the social and psychological consequences potentially serious. But because there's no easy way to do it, people have started clutching at straws and dreaming up fantasy schemes. 1/9
2/9 Can we leave lockdown safely? Possibly - if we had reliable PCR tests that were delivered effectively; if we knew the level of immunity in the population; if we had reliable antibody tests; and if we knew antibodies conferred immunity. But we don't. So let the fantasy begin.
3/9 We'll maintain social distancing by requiring businesses to manage it. Put signs up. Close canteens. Let's ignore the fact that most people work for small companies in confined spaces, sharing a tiny communal kitchen maybe and a single toilet.
4/9 We'll get the trains, buses and tubes up to an 80% timetable again in a few weeks. Because it would be a great idea to have key workers mingling with the general public once more. And there is so much good evidence that we can maintain social distancing on public transport.
5/9 We'll nominate our friends and family and be allowed to hang out with them. Because the people in *our* group would never be part of anyone else's group. And policing it would be really easy. Perhaps we'll have badges or a F&F app?
6/9 Prof Chris Whitty says that much of the social distancing we know now will have to continue. But we want to get out of the lockdown. Awks. So what we do is *pretend* that social distancing and the lockdown are somehow *different* things. That one can exist without the other.
7/9 In fact, the reason the lockdown exists is *because* of the need for social distancing. It's because we need to reduce contact with others that I queue around the supermarket car park once a week two metres from other shoppers. And those limitations *are* the lockdown.
8/9 My strong sense now is that we are going to start easing restrictions from next month. We'll experiment and try weird and impractical stuff. Maybe we have no choice. Maybe people won't tolerate more lockdown. And the economic imperative to move on is just too great.
9/9 But there won't be any precedent for the stuff we'll try or any way of predicting the medical, social and practical consequences. It won't be science. The science is the difficult stuff. The tests, the antibodies, the immunity. And sometimes pretend is easier.
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