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1/12 (thread)
UK government policy in the first half of March is consistent with SAGE putting weight on theories that the UK already had a high prevalence of COVID-19 as a disease that had a very low clinical fraction.
The now-doubtful "icreberg theory." https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1253755328572907522
UK government policy in the first half of March is consistent with SAGE putting weight on theories that the UK already had a high prevalence of COVID-19 as a disease that had a very low clinical fraction.
The now-doubtful "icreberg theory." https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1253755328572907522
2/12
Putting weight on this "iceberg theory" would have had implications for the response:
a) containment, involving test/trace/isolate is pointless because most carriers are asymptomatic
b) after including asymptomatics in the denominator, actual severity is very low
Putting weight on this "iceberg theory" would have had implications for the response:
a) containment, involving test/trace/isolate is pointless because most carriers are asymptomatic
b) after including asymptomatics in the denominator, actual severity is very low
3/12
A personal "buy in" would explain Patrick Vallance's Mar 13 Sky News remarks (start at 4:25): "not get rid of it completely, which you *can't* do anyway... and also allow enough of us, who are going to get mild illness, to become immune.."
A personal "buy in" would explain Patrick Vallance's Mar 13 Sky News remarks (start at 4:25): "not get rid of it completely, which you *can't* do anyway... and also allow enough of us, who are going to get mild illness, to become immune.."
4/12
When the interviewer at 5:25 refers to a best-case scenario fatality risk estimate of of "half of 1% of 1%" (0.005%, or max ~3,300 Britons) in a past interview, Vallance mentions, "for most people, it's a mild disease. It's important to know we don't know yet..."
When the interviewer at 5:25 refers to a best-case scenario fatality risk estimate of of "half of 1% of 1%" (0.005%, or max ~3,300 Britons) in a past interview, Vallance mentions, "for most people, it's a mild disease. It's important to know we don't know yet..."
5/12
"...nobody knows, what proportion of people have this, who are completely asymptomatic, so the only cases that we've really got at the moment, are people who've had symptoms, or largely people who've had symptoms."
"...nobody knows, what proportion of people have this, who are completely asymptomatic, so the only cases that we've really got at the moment, are people who've had symptoms, or largely people who've had symptoms."
6/12
"That means that even estimating exactly, what the.. death rate is from this is quite difficult because there may be many more people who haven't been detected yet."
This is suggesting a high asymptomatic population i.e. the iceberg theory.
"That means that even estimating exactly, what the.. death rate is from this is quite difficult because there may be many more people who haven't been detected yet."
This is suggesting a high asymptomatic population i.e. the iceberg theory.
7/12
There is a degree of certainty to his remarks in, for example, saying without much equivocation that 'herd immunity' would require around 60% of the population to contract the disease. (4:50).
What other predictions of the models had Vallance accepted as fairly certain?
There is a degree of certainty to his remarks in, for example, saying without much equivocation that 'herd immunity' would require around 60% of the population to contract the disease. (4:50).
What other predictions of the models had Vallance accepted as fairly certain?
8/12
Vallance is quoted in FT as having said on Mar 12, "It’s not possible to stop everyone getting it and it’s also not desirable because you want some immunity in the population to protect ourselves in the future." https://www.ft.com/content/c43b9c3e-6470-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
Vallance is quoted in FT as having said on Mar 12, "It’s not possible to stop everyone getting it and it’s also not desirable because you want some immunity in the population to protect ourselves in the future." https://www.ft.com/content/c43b9c3e-6470-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
9/12
That same FT story quotes LSHTM professor Jimmy Whitworth that "under UK conditions it would be a defensible political decision not to try to stop the epidemic but to flatten its peak and push it into the summer."
What did "UK conditions" refer to?
UK cases were ~500.
That same FT story quotes LSHTM professor Jimmy Whitworth that "under UK conditions it would be a defensible political decision not to try to stop the epidemic but to flatten its peak and push it into the summer."
What did "UK conditions" refer to?
UK cases were ~500.
10/12
Lancet chief editor @richardhorton1 is quoted in disagreement, “The evidence is clear. We need urgent implementation of social-distancing and closure policies. The government is playing roulette with the public. This is a major error.”
Not if "iceberg theory" was correct.
Lancet chief editor @richardhorton1 is quoted in disagreement, “The evidence is clear. We need urgent implementation of social-distancing and closure policies. The government is playing roulette with the public. This is a major error.”
Not if "iceberg theory" was correct.
11/12
We are told that the "U-turn" a few days later was due to the publication of an Imperial College report. I think this is simply cover for a political calculation that a worried public wanted to see stronger measures.
"Iceberg theory" remained the government's premise.
We are told that the "U-turn" a few days later was due to the publication of an Imperial College report. I think this is simply cover for a political calculation that a worried public wanted to see stronger measures.
"Iceberg theory" remained the government's premise.
12/12
That premise may be why, in hindsight, the "U-turn" appears as but a swerve.
The old-school containment that UK's antipodean ex-colonies are now practicing with apparent success had already been tossed aside. https://twitter.com/benbenchia/status/1239188038602772480?s=20
That premise may be why, in hindsight, the "U-turn" appears as but a swerve.
The old-school containment that UK's antipodean ex-colonies are now practicing with apparent success had already been tossed aside. https://twitter.com/benbenchia/status/1239188038602772480?s=20
Related, a call to resume containment in UK by @devisridhar
( https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/22/flattening-curve-new-zealand-coronavirus)
( https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/22/flattening-curve-new-zealand-coronavirus)
