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This is exactly what I mean. #BendTheCurve is a discourse, a set of assumptions about this virus, the most important of which is that it becomes an epidemic everywhere it reaches.
It might be too late to eradicate now in many places, but wasnât in March.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boriss-difficult-decision-when-should-lockdown-be-lifted https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253639334609055749
It might be too late to eradicate now in many places, but wasnât in March.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boriss-difficult-decision-when-should-lockdown-be-lifted https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253639334609055749
And I canât help link the widespread lack of CQ almost anywhere outside of Asia with this fatalistic asssumption that hundreds of thousands are going to get infected and die no matter what.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253752191359217664?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253752191359217664
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253752191359217664?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253752191359217664
Singapore is a case in point: eradication is still the goal. As much as people want to frame them as a cautionary tale, they took measures to completely supress this with lockdowns and CQ as soon as the trigger threshold was reached for Plan B.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253679806488514564?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253679806488514564
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253679806488514564?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253679806488514564
How many countries skipped Plan A (try to keep it out in first place, test and trace to find imports + early clusters, masks, etc) and went straight to assuming an epidemic was inevitable, even though they only had a few hundred cases?
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253727180359524352?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253727180359524352
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253727180359524352?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253727180359524352
This is assumption was built into almost all the early models, but I think there's mounting evidence (like NextStrain data) that the 'sparks' that lit today's pandemic came much later than January. The US, UK, and EU cross-infected each other.
https://twitter.com/eekyrich/status/1253970580904251392?s=21 https://twitter.com/eekyrich/status/1253970580904251392
https://twitter.com/eekyrich/status/1253970580904251392?s=21 https://twitter.com/eekyrich/status/1253970580904251392
UK/EU/US: it's impossible to eradicate! #BendTheCurve and slow down the pace at which 70% of population gets infected!
Asia Pac: ....
https://twitter.com/benbenchia/status/1253972076773269504?s=21 https://twitter.com/benbenchia/status/1253972076773269504
Asia Pac: ....
https://twitter.com/benbenchia/status/1253972076773269504?s=21 https://twitter.com/benbenchia/status/1253972076773269504
China didnât have many, or reliable tests, when they brought the R0 down to something like 0.48. The assumption that the overall trend is âfakeâ in China is part of the problem. Yet if ppl also think this started in US/UK/EU in Jan, why is China re-opened?
https://twitter.com/altontw/status/1253977470794993668?s=21 https://twitter.com/altontw/status/1253977470794993668
https://twitter.com/altontw/status/1253977470794993668?s=21 https://twitter.com/altontw/status/1253977470794993668
#BendTheCurve is harmful b/c it was embraced in places like the UK when they had <500 cases. It wrongly concluded a strategy of eradication was impossible and explicitly set them on their current course of tens of thousands of deaths with no end in site.
https://twitter.com/joncoppage/status/1254042941326327808?s=21 https://twitter.com/joncoppage/status/1254042941326327808
https://twitter.com/joncoppage/status/1254042941326327808?s=21 https://twitter.com/joncoppage/status/1254042941326327808
Vietnam shares an actual land border w China. They had been through SARS and decided in *December* that they werenât doing that again. They eradicated it everywhere it popped up. Like most places here, that mostly meant tracking down #BendTheCurve exports. https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/04/17/situation-report-vietnam/
I think a strategy that disregarded what Vietnam, HK, China, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, NZ, etc were doing at the time is pretty harmful when the places that adopted it are now getting daily death tolls larger than all weâve experienced combined.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254047600161861635?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254047600161861635
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254047600161861635?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254047600161861635
I had so much faith in the Imperial report OutbreakAsiaâs first piece was an explainer on what it meant for Asia. We had it translated in almost a dozen languages. But the best minds in the UK couldnât imagine centralized quarantine or travel restrictions. https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/03/21/what-the-imperial-covid-19-report-means-for-asia-2/
Anyone who followed their advice knowingly set themselves on a course of hundreds of thousands of deaths and never-ending lockdowns in the best case scenario... because they were told what actually happened out here - eradication - was almost impossible.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254051158902992896?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254051158902992896
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254051158902992896?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254051158902992896
If you think I'm exaggerating about the how deep #BendTheCurve has taken hold as a fatalistic "there's no stopping an epidemic" discourse. Why would anyone want to do two months of lockdowns just to expand medical capacity instead of trying to stop it...
https://twitter.com/elilake/status/1254059092806688769?s=21 https://twitter.com/elilake/status/1254059092806688769
https://twitter.com/elilake/status/1254059092806688769?s=21 https://twitter.com/elilake/status/1254059092806688769
