This is exactly what I mean. #BendTheCurve is a discourse, a set of assumptions about this virus, the most important of which is that it becomes an epidemic everywhere it reaches.

It might be too late to eradicate now in many places, but wasn’t in March.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boriss-difficult-decision-when-should-lockdown-be-lifted">https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/b... https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253639334609055749">https://twitter.com/Comparati...
And I can’t help link the widespread lack of CQ almost anywhere outside of Asia with this fatalistic asssumption that hundreds of thousands are going to get infected and die no matter what.

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253752191359217664?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253752191359217664">https://twitter.com/comparati...
Singapore is a case in point: eradication is still the goal. As much as people want to frame them as a cautionary tale, they took measures to completely supress this with lockdowns and CQ as soon as the trigger threshold was reached for Plan B.

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253679806488514564?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253679806488514564">https://twitter.com/Comparati...
How many countries skipped Plan A (try to keep it out in first place, test and trace to find imports + early clusters, masks, etc) and went straight to assuming an epidemic was inevitable, even though they only had a few hundred cases?
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253727180359524352?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253727180359524352">https://twitter.com/Comparati...
This is assumption was built into almost all the early models, but I think there& #39;s mounting evidence (like NextStrain data) that the & #39;sparks& #39; that lit today& #39;s pandemic came much later than January. The US, UK, and EU cross-infected each other.

https://twitter.com/eekyrich/status/1253970580904251392?s=21">https://twitter.com/eekyrich/... https://twitter.com/eekyrich/status/1253970580904251392">https://twitter.com/eekyrich/...
UK/EU/US: it& #39;s impossible to eradicate! #BendTheCurve and slow down the pace at which 70% of population gets infected!

Asia Pac: ....
https://twitter.com/benbenchia/status/1253972076773269504?s=21">https://twitter.com/benbenchi... https://twitter.com/benbenchia/status/1253972076773269504">https://twitter.com/benbenchi...
China didn’t have many, or reliable tests, when they brought the R0 down to something like 0.48. The assumption that the overall trend is ‘fake’ in China is part of the problem. Yet if ppl also think this started in US/UK/EU in Jan, why is China re-opened?
https://twitter.com/altontw/status/1253977470794993668?s=21">https://twitter.com/altontw/s... https://twitter.com/altontw/status/1253977470794993668">https://twitter.com/altontw/s...
#BendTheCurve is harmful b/c it was embraced in places like the UK when they had <500 cases. It wrongly concluded a strategy of eradication was impossible and explicitly set them on their current course of tens of thousands of deaths with no end in site.
https://twitter.com/joncoppage/status/1254042941326327808?s=21">https://twitter.com/joncoppag... https://twitter.com/joncoppage/status/1254042941326327808">https://twitter.com/joncoppag...
Vietnam shares an actual land border w China. They had been through SARS and decided in *December* that they weren’t doing that again. They eradicated it everywhere it popped up. Like most places here, that mostly meant tracking down #BendTheCurve exports. https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/04/17/situation-report-vietnam/">https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/04/1...
Situation Report: Vietnam

Editors Note: This Situation Report was delayed for several days because countries like Vietnam led us to reassess what’s currently happening in Southeast Asia. We started deeply skeptical that...

https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/04/17/situation-report-vietnam/
I think a strategy that disregarded what Vietnam, HK, China, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, NZ, etc were doing at the time is pretty harmful when the places that adopted it are now getting daily death tolls larger than all we’ve experienced combined.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254047600161861635?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254047600161861635">https://twitter.com/comparati...
I had so much faith in the Imperial report OutbreakAsia’s first piece was an explainer on what it meant for Asia. We had it translated in almost a dozen languages. But the best minds in the UK couldn’t imagine centralized quarantine or travel restrictions. https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/03/21/what-the-imperial-covid-19-report-means-for-asia-2/">https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/03/2...
What the Imperial COVID-19 Report Means for Asia

A report released by Imperial College a two days has shaken many countries out of COVID-19 complacency. The report isn’t particularly long, but we will summarize the main findings of the report and...

https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/03/21/what-the-imperial-covid-19-report-means-for-asia-2/
Anyone who followed their advice knowingly set themselves on a course of hundreds of thousands of deaths and never-ending lockdowns in the best case scenario... because they were told what actually happened out here - eradication - was almost impossible.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254051158902992896?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1254051158902992896">https://twitter.com/comparati...
Anyone who followed their advice knowingly set themselves on a course of hundreds of thousands of deaths and never-ending lockdowns in the best case scenario... because they were told what actually happened out here - eradication - was almost impossible. https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparati...
Anyone who followed their advice knowingly set themselves on a course of hundreds of thousands of deaths and never-ending lockdowns in the best case scenario... because they were told what actually happened out here - eradication - was almost impossible. https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparati...
Anyone who followed their advice knowingly set themselves on a course of hundreds of thousands of deaths and never-ending lockdowns in the best case scenario... because they were told what actually happened out here - eradication - was almost impossible. https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparati...
If you think I& #39;m exaggerating about the how deep #BendTheCurve has taken hold as a fatalistic "there& #39;s no stopping an epidemic" discourse. Why would anyone want to do two months of lockdowns just to expand medical capacity instead of trying to stop it...

https://twitter.com/elilake/status/1254059092806688769?s=21">https://twitter.com/elilake/s... https://twitter.com/elilake/status/1254059092806688769">https://twitter.com/elilake/s...
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