Getz Pharma has conducted a seroprevalence 100% testing-census of their facility. To extrapolate the data obtained through this census, we have to consider the following factors to get the correct statistical forecast for the #COVID19 related indicators in Pakistan.

1.The study population at Getz Pharma was adults between 18-65 yrs of age. While extrapolating it to the general population of 220 mn, 53% of the population in Pak which is under 18 years of age & 4.5 % above 65 yrs needs to be stratified and excluded, thus the universe is 93 mn.

2. The population setting of this census was a dense urban population and excluded 64 percent of the rural population of Pakistan thus reducing the universe to 33 million adult urban population.

The infectivity quotient (R0) is very different between densely urban and less crowded rural populations ranging from 2.5 to 5.

3. This is a cross-sectional seroprevalence survey which also includes people who have had Covid19, have recovered, and are now immune. 90% of our census had asymptomatic individuals.

4.Serological kits like the ones we used are FDA approved, have a false positive rate ranging from 2% to a max 7% (Stanford & Massachusetts study) due to nonspecific immunity & nonspecific protection to Covid19. There may be minimum cross-reactivity with other previous SARs virus

The antibodies can be nonspecific to Covid19 also and yet provide protection from Covid19. According to a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal in JAMA, even the "gold standard" PCR kits can have an accuracy ranging from 32% (throat swab) to 64%(nasal swab).

5. The initial findings from the Getz Pharma census may be suggestive of an innate immunity in the Pakistani population. This is the first of its kind, large scale, groundbreaking census on healthy, urban adults between 18 to 65 years of age at Getz Pharma.

Like any other epidemiological survey, before it is conclusive further studies are needed.

6. Seroprevalence studies may be up to 85 times more than PCR reported numbers and studies. Serological surveys also include recovered Covid19 patients within 28 days.

While all tests have strengths and limitations we cannot use a cost-intensive model used by western countries for diagnosis but rather a cost-effective, (point of care) POC model that was successfully employed by China, South Korea, and other countries.

To make Getz Pharma Covid19 free zone, we will be conducting sequential serological assessments weekly in negative Covid19 employees of Getz Pharma.
@CEOGetzPharma @DrWajihaJaved @najamsethi @hyzaidi @murtazasolangi @zfrmrza @murtazawahab1 @SindhHealthDpt @Asad_Umar @LumosNotNox

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