Am I worried about Kim Jong Un right now? Yes, and I'll spare you my keen observation that he's fat, stressed, and has every bad habit you could have except meth.

I'm worried because North Korea isn't prepared for him to kick the bucket and neither are we. 1/x

For many reasons, the most likely pathway to conflict between China and the US is Korea. Policy elites have invested lots of effort to pretend that Korea was an area of Sino-US cooperation or that we have convergent interests in stability but that's always been overstated. 2/x

So yeah, I'm very worried about the clash of civilizations buildup from the Tom Cottons and Pompeos of the world playing out in Korea. 3/x

But I'm also worried about how the regime in Pyongyang will handle succession. @SheenaGreitens @dpinkston et al have made some valuable observations about who could succeed KJU, and more specifically about why succession is unlikely to be smooth 4/x

The important thing to understand is that the military is well positioned to gain in influence post-KJU no matter what. If hell breaks loose, they've got the guns and organization. 5/x

If the leadership transition involves relatively peaceful battles of court politics, military elites will prove a valuable interest group to capture. And if someone in the Kim bloodline takes over, given the circumstances they will need the military on their side. 6/x

So expect the military to grow in influence even if there's not a military coup (which is also conceivable). That matters because 1) the military hates the US more than anyone else, 2) has organizational incentives to be hostile, 3) and has a very offensive strat culture 7/x

So in a succession crisis, with military influence on the rise and leadership unsettled at best, nuke diplomacy will be either dead or a way to simply probe and placate the US while doing nothing different. 8/x

And here's the part where it matters that the US is run by idiots. Thanks to maximum pressure and other idiotic decisions, we've made it almost impossible to be a moderate in the North Korean system. To say there's no trust is an understatement. 9/x

Rivalry and mistrust between North Korea and the US/ROK/China is overdetermined--commitment problems, Goliath's curse, pressure for pressure strategic culture, unrealistic US bargaining strategies. 10/x

If we were better positioned, a succession crisis would give us a chance to favorably stabilize the situation, or at least have good intel. But nobody in North Korea wants to hear a damn thing from us because we're run by "Commander-in-Grief," "Lying King," "Dotard" 11/x

The Trump administration lacks the strategic acumen or policy discipline to navigate a succession crisis. Pompeo, for example, though it was a good idea to say their denuclearization policy won't change regardless who's in charge. bravo, idiot. 12/x

Civil war is possible. War with a nuclear North Korea is possible. The nightmare WWIII with China is possible. These outcomes hinge partly on decisions we make. Hell of a time to have a president who thinks we should drink disinfectant to cure a virus. END