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Background: Why the world is at risk is not just because of one coronavirus. Why we predicted it in 2006
Transition to Extinction: Pandemics in a connected world.
"Are people in western countries safe because of higher quality health systems?" No
1/ https://necsi.edu/transition-to-extinction
Transition to Extinction: Pandemics in a connected world.
"Are people in western countries safe because of higher quality health systems?" No
1/ https://necsi.edu/transition-to-extinction
Here is the video https://vimeo.com/172628400
Ebola 2014 in West Africa:
10X any previous Ebola outbreak (counter to statistical and international organization expectations)
Predicted to cause 10M dead (and not go anywhere else)
Stopped (extinction) by within community door-to-door monitoring
2/ https://necsi.edu/how-community-response-stopped-ebola
10X any previous Ebola outbreak (counter to statistical and international organization expectations)
Predicted to cause 10M dead (and not go anywhere else)
Stopped (extinction) by within community door-to-door monitoring
2/ https://necsi.edu/how-community-response-stopped-ebola
Why did we advocate for community monitoring?
Contact tracing doesn't work in a city with more than a few cases.
Complexity science: Go to larger scale (community) and it worked.
Simulations confirm:
https://necsi.edu/beyond-contact-tracing
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Contact tracing doesn't work in a city with more than a few cases.
Complexity science: Go to larger scale (community) and it worked.
Simulations confirm:
https://necsi.edu/beyond-contact-tracing
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Here is a video of community monitoring with travel restrictions: Red, Yellow, Green Zones.
This is a really important strategy needed for Coronavirus too.
This is a really important strategy needed for Coronavirus too.
Simulation of outbreak starting in Africa we made to show what happens if Ebola reaches airports and gets a ride
Scary.
But, public health authorities say: Hey, no problem, we have a Modern Healthcare System!
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Scary.
But, public health authorities say: Hey, no problem, we have a Modern Healthcare System!
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Explanation of "Effective Ebola Response" using A Multiscale Response:
"A particularly effective strategy is preventing the spread of disease to groups that are not already infected."
5/ https://necsi.edu/effective-ebola-response
"A particularly effective strategy is preventing the spread of disease to groups that are not already infected."
5/ https://necsi.edu/effective-ebola-response
Ending Pandemics:
1) Community monitoring (testing)
2) Travel restrictions
3) Isolation (obvious: without isolation a contagious disease can't be stopped)
6/ https://necsi.edu/ending-pandemics
1) Community monitoring (testing)
2) Travel restrictions
3) Isolation (obvious: without isolation a contagious disease can't be stopped)
6/ https://necsi.edu/ending-pandemics
And a simulation of an outbreak starting in Asia we made in 2008. Why? Because we were trying to explain it to people for whom it was not obvious
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Question: Does a medical system treating the sick prevent a pandemic?
No. That isn't its function
(Still, it can help by not sending people home to infect their families)
Stopping a pandemic requires preventing transmission, a social not medical action
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No. That isn't its function
(Still, it can help by not sending people home to infect their families)
Stopping a pandemic requires preventing transmission, a social not medical action
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Public health, like other sciences, is dominated today by statistics: many individuals
Community/city/state are just containers for people
This reductionistic view doesn't describe extreme events (pandemics) or collective acts
Society requires different concepts and math
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Community/city/state are just containers for people
This reductionistic view doesn't describe extreme events (pandemics) or collective acts
Society requires different concepts and math
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