Background: Why the world is at risk is not just because of one coronavirus. Why we predicted it in 2006

Transition to Extinction: Pandemics in a connected world.

"Are people in western countries safe because of higher quality health systems?" No

1/ https://necsi.edu/transition-to-extinction

Here is the video https://vimeo.com/172628400 

Ebola 2014 in West Africa:

10X any previous Ebola outbreak (counter to statistical and international organization expectations)

Predicted to cause 10M dead (and not go anywhere else)

Stopped (extinction) by within community door-to-door monitoring

2/ https://necsi.edu/how-community-response-stopped-ebola

Why did we advocate for community monitoring?

Contact tracing doesn't work in a city with more than a few cases.

Complexity science: Go to larger scale (community) and it worked.

Simulations confirm:

https://necsi.edu/beyond-contact-tracing

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Here is a video of community monitoring with travel restrictions: Red, Yellow, Green Zones.

This is a really important strategy needed for Coronavirus too.

Simulation of outbreak starting in Africa we made to show what happens if Ebola reaches airports and gets a ride

Scary.

But, public health authorities say: Hey, no problem, we have a Modern Healthcare System!

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Explanation of "Effective Ebola Response" using A Multiscale Response:

"A particularly effective strategy is preventing the spread of disease to groups that are not already infected."

5/ https://necsi.edu/effective-ebola-response

Ending Pandemics:

1) Community monitoring (testing)
2) Travel restrictions
3) Isolation (obvious: without isolation a contagious disease can't be stopped)

6/ https://necsi.edu/ending-pandemics

And a simulation of an outbreak starting in Asia we made in 2008. Why? Because we were trying to explain it to people for whom it was not obvious

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Question: Does a medical system treating the sick prevent a pandemic?

No. That isn't its function

(Still, it can help by not sending people home to infect their families)

Stopping a pandemic requires preventing transmission, a social not medical action

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Public health, like other sciences, is dominated today by statistics: many individuals

Community/city/state are just containers for people

This reductionistic view doesn't describe extreme events (pandemics) or collective acts

Society requires different concepts and math

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