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To all you selfish galaxy brain weewoos out there:
The fact that your city's daily percentage of positive COVID19 tests has remained consistent means nothing as a stand-alone statistic so STOP citing it as a reason to re-open things. And here's why the fuck not.
The fact that your city's daily percentage of positive COVID19 tests has remained consistent means nothing as a stand-alone statistic so STOP citing it as a reason to re-open things. And here's why the fuck not.
Let's say Community A tests 10 people per day for COVID19 and 1 person per day tests positive. This trend continues for a week. That means that at the end of that week, Community A has 7 confirmed COVID19 cases and a 10% positivity rate for testing.
Now let's take Community B. They test 100 people per day for COVID19 and 10 people per day test positive. This trend also continues for a week. So at the end of one week, Community B has 70 confirmed cases of COVID19 and has a 10% positivity rate for testing.
Both Community A and B have consistently remained at a 10% positivity rate for confirmed COVID19 cases. Cool?
Community A has tested 70 people with 7 positives, whereas Community B has tested 700 people with 70 positive cases.
Community A has tested 70 people with 7 positives, whereas Community B has tested 700 people with 70 positive cases.
OK, but Emily, it's not fair to compare two separate communities with different testing capacities and demographics as an accurate representation of statistics. Yes, you're right, but also wrong. So FINE! Let's stay in one community.
Let's live in the land of Community A. The Mayor of Community A wants to ReopEn tHe EConOmy and cites the fact that Community A has consistently had a 10% positivity rate for COVID19 every day for week as a reason to re-open. ThE VIruS iSnt SPreaDIng.
Sounds kind of promising, right? Well, what the Mayor of Community A isn't telling you, is the number of people being tested each day that's resulting in a consistent 10% positivity rate. So, let's look at a hypothetical week of testing.
Sunday: 50 people tested, 5 positive
Monday: 60 people tested, 6 positive
Tuesday: 100 people tested, 10 positive
Wednesday: 150 people tested, 15 positive
Thursday: 80 people tested, 8 positive
Friday: 120 people tested, 12 positive
Saturday: 30 people tested, 3 positive
Monday: 60 people tested, 6 positive
Tuesday: 100 people tested, 10 positive
Wednesday: 150 people tested, 15 positive
Thursday: 80 people tested, 8 positive
Friday: 120 people tested, 12 positive
Saturday: 30 people tested, 3 positive
Each of those days has a 10% positivity rate for COVID19, but to compare data from Wednesday with Saturday and say it's accurately comparable is some clownshoes horseshit.
Daily positivity rates do not give an accurate picture of the overall prevalence of COVID19 in a community. It's merely a reflection of how many people were or were not tested. And yes, it's an important statistic to track, but it CANNOT be interpreted on its own.
It most certainly cannot be used as a rationale for re-opening non-essential services and easing social distancing requirements.
I have seen multiple government officials citing consistent daily positivity results as a reason to re-open things. And yes, it could mean that because daily rates are staying the same, the rate of transmission of COVID19 among a community are also consistent.
That's the problem with statistics, especially in fluid situations like this where we just don't know. Could it mean things are calming down? Maybe. Could it be a total coincidence? Also maybe. Could it be only reflective of testing efforts? Juuuusst maybe.
