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To all you selfish galaxy brain weewoos out there:
The fact that your city& #39;s daily percentage of positive COVID19 tests has remained consistent means nothing as a stand-alone statistic so STOP citing it as a reason to re-open things. And here& #39;s why the fuck not.
The fact that your city& #39;s daily percentage of positive COVID19 tests has remained consistent means nothing as a stand-alone statistic so STOP citing it as a reason to re-open things. And here& #39;s why the fuck not.
Let& #39;s say Community A tests 10 people per day for COVID19 and 1 person per day tests positive. This trend continues for a week. That means that at the end of that week, Community A has 7 confirmed COVID19 cases and a 10% positivity rate for testing.
Now let& #39;s take Community B. They test 100 people per day for COVID19 and 10 people per day test positive. This trend also continues for a week. So at the end of one week, Community B has 70 confirmed cases of COVID19 and has a 10% positivity rate for testing.
Both Community A and B have consistently remained at a 10% positivity rate for confirmed COVID19 cases. Cool?
Community A has tested 70 people with 7 positives, whereas Community B has tested 700 people with 70 positive cases.
Community A has tested 70 people with 7 positives, whereas Community B has tested 700 people with 70 positive cases.
OK, but Emily, it& #39;s not fair to compare two separate communities with different testing capacities and demographics as an accurate representation of statistics. Yes, you& #39;re right, but also wrong. So FINE! Let& #39;s stay in one community.
Let& #39;s live in the land of Community A. The Mayor of Community A wants to ReopEn tHe EConOmy and cites the fact that Community A has consistently had a 10% positivity rate for COVID19 every day for week as a reason to re-open. ThE VIruS iSnt SPreaDIng.
Sounds kind of promising, right? Well, what the Mayor of Community A isn& #39;t telling you, is the number of people being tested each day that& #39;s resulting in a consistent 10% positivity rate. So, let& #39;s look at a hypothetical week of testing.
Sunday: 50 people tested, 5 positive
Monday: 60 people tested, 6 positive
Tuesday: 100 people tested, 10 positive
Wednesday: 150 people tested, 15 positive
Thursday: 80 people tested, 8 positive
Friday: 120 people tested, 12 positive
Saturday: 30 people tested, 3 positive
Monday: 60 people tested, 6 positive
Tuesday: 100 people tested, 10 positive
Wednesday: 150 people tested, 15 positive
Thursday: 80 people tested, 8 positive
Friday: 120 people tested, 12 positive
Saturday: 30 people tested, 3 positive
Each of those days has a 10% positivity rate for COVID19, but to compare data from Wednesday with Saturday and say it& #39;s accurately comparable is some clownshoes horseshit.
Daily positivity rates do not give an accurate picture of the overall prevalence of COVID19 in a community. It& #39;s merely a reflection of how many people were or were not tested. And yes, it& #39;s an important statistic to track, but it CANNOT be interpreted on its own.
It most certainly cannot be used as a rationale for re-opening non-essential services and easing social distancing requirements.
I have seen multiple government officials citing consistent daily positivity results as a reason to re-open things. And yes, it could mean that because daily rates are staying the same, the rate of transmission of COVID19 among a community are also consistent.
