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So Iran conducted a new satellite launch. Why is this a big deal and different from previous space launches? Thread 1/13
The first thing to note is that this was the first sat launch conducted by the IRGC. Iranian officials indicate that this was not merely a different launch modus but the unveiling of a major IRGC space effort that includes SLV development. 2/13
We have been tracking reports about a parallel IRGC-led space effort focused on solid fuel for a while. The program began in the mid 2000s and suffered a catastrophic explosion in 2011. 3/13 https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1207711/pasdaran-solid-fuel-and-aviator-sunglasses/
Almost all of the information we initially had was related to work done pre-2011. So the big question was whether the program continued or died with the 2011 explosion. First clues came in the form of an uptick in solid motor testing at Shahroud. 4/13 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/23/world/middleeast/iran-missiles.html
Then, in late 2019, the IRGC got bolder in terms of the material it released on the pre-2011 effort. For the first time, they showed footage of Moghaddam next to a large solid fuel motor in what was very likely deliberate signalling. 5/13
In February 2020, the IRGC unveiled its Salman solid upper stage motor confirming the program was still alive. While the Salman is small, it serves as a demonstrator for many core technologies needed for solid SLV or long range missile development. 6/13 https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208906/irans-solid-propellant-slv-program-is-alive-and-kicking/
Then, a few days ago, the program conducted its first satellite launch by putting the Salman on top of a Ghadr (a proven liquid propellant missile) and adding a small kick motor as a third stage resulting in the Qased. 7/13
However, Hajizadeh stated that the use of a Ghadr was just a testing arrangement, that future launches would use a solid fuel first stage and that the program's overall goal is all-solid SLVs. 8/13
Again, geospatial analysis of Shahroud shows that Iran is quite active testing solid motors there and has been moving towards successively larger test stands. Taken together with Hajizadeh's comments it seems likely they already have a motor ready for first stage use. 9/13
Both Hajizadeh and IRGC Space commander Jafarabadi also announced that they intend to launch heavier satellites to higher orbits including MEO and GEO, which would require more powerful launchers. 10/13
Now what does all of that that mean? Basically, that the Qased is just the first public step in a program to develop solid fuel SLVs that has finally emerged from the shadows and entered the phase of flight testing. 11/13
This has quite a few security implications. Unlike the Nodong technology used by Iran's large Simorgh SLV, solid propellant is a viable technology for long range missiles. Thus, the solid-fuel SLV program also serves as a hedging strategy for such systems. 12/13
How quickly Iran will proceed on this pathway depends on both how far they have already progressed technologically as well as political will. Based on Hajizadeh's comments and the testing we have seen at Shahroud, it seems we could see a smaller all-solid SLV quite soon. 13/13
