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So Iran conducted a new satellite launch. Why is this a big deal and different from previous space launches? Thread 1/13
The first thing to note is that this was the first sat launch conducted by the IRGC. Iranian officials indicate that this was not merely a different launch modus but the unveiling of a major IRGC space effort that includes SLV development. 2/13
We have been tracking reports about a parallel IRGC-led space effort focused on solid fuel for a while. The program began in the mid 2000s and suffered a catastrophic explosion in 2011. 3/13 https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1207711/pasdaran-solid-fuel-and-aviator-sunglasses/">https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1...
Almost all of the information we initially had was related to work done pre-2011. So the big question was whether the program continued or died with the 2011 explosion. First clues came in the form of an uptick in solid motor testing at Shahroud. 4/13 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/23/world/middleeast/iran-missiles.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/2...
Then, in late 2019, the IRGC got bolder in terms of the material it released on the pre-2011 effort. For the first time, they showed footage of Moghaddam next to a large solid fuel motor in what was very likely deliberate signalling. 5/13
In February 2020, the IRGC unveiled its Salman solid upper stage motor confirming the program was still alive. While the Salman is small, it serves as a demonstrator for many core technologies needed for solid SLV or long range missile development. 6/13 https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208906/irans-solid-propellant-slv-program-is-alive-and-kicking/">https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1...
Then, a few days ago, the program conducted its first satellite launch by putting the Salman on top of a Ghadr (a proven liquid propellant missile) and adding a small kick motor as a third stage resulting in the Qased. 7/13
However, Hajizadeh stated that the use of a Ghadr was just a testing arrangement, that future launches would use a solid fuel first stage and that the program& #39;s overall goal is all-solid SLVs. 8/13
Again, geospatial analysis of Shahroud shows that Iran is quite active testing solid motors there and has been moving towards successively larger test stands. Taken together with Hajizadeh& #39;s comments it seems likely they already have a motor ready for first stage use. 9/13
Both Hajizadeh and IRGC Space commander Jafarabadi also announced that they intend to launch heavier satellites to higher orbits including MEO and GEO, which would require more powerful launchers. 10/13
Now what does all of that that mean? Basically, that the Qased is just the first public step in a program to develop solid fuel SLVs that has finally emerged from the shadows and entered the phase of flight testing. 11/13
This has quite a few security implications. Unlike the Nodong technology used by Iran& #39;s large Simorgh SLV, solid propellant is a viable technology for long range missiles. Thus, the solid-fuel SLV program also serves as a hedging strategy for such systems. 12/13
How quickly Iran will proceed on this pathway depends on both how far they have already progressed technologically as well as political will. Based on Hajizadeh& #39;s comments and the testing we have seen at Shahroud, it seems we could see a smaller all-solid SLV quite soon. 13/13
