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University of Miami (FL) has concluded its preliminary COVID-19 study, which found ~165,000 Miami-Dade residents (or 6%) had antibodies, nearly 16x the number of cases reported by the state health department. This puts the fatality rate at ~0.14% there. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html
Important: "UM researchers say their findings are more robust than most because they used Florida Power & Light to generate phone numbers in targeted demographic areas, leading to a more randomized selection of participants." https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html
More details from the story: "Friday’s results, based on two weeks of countywide antibody testing and about 1,400 participants, found that about half of the people who tested positive for antibodies reported no symptoms in the 14-17 days before being tested."
"That would mean about 165,000 estimated infections in Miami-Dade, with the margin of error equating to 123,000 residents on the low end and 221,000 residents on the high end."
So, a nearly 100,000-case range here.
So, a nearly 100,000-case range here.
Some people are correctly pointing out that antibody tests can produce a significant number of false positives. Meanwhile, others point out previous COVID exposures could potentially create antibodies, too. I’m just sharing UM results and extrapolating its fatality rate.
Important to note based on the range they provided, the state health department’s official records could be, at best, 12x lower than reality and at worst, 21x lower than reality.
Again, this is based on UM’s methods, which even their researchers pointed out could be imperfect.
Again, this is based on UM’s methods, which even their researchers pointed out could be imperfect.
