The CBO's GDP Forecast completely breaks the "Time for a Change" forecasting model, because it uses ONLY Q2 GDP. The model sees -39.6% GDP & net approval of -9.1% & produces a result of Trump only getting 29.1% of the 2 party vote. Uniform Swing map below, obviously batshit crazy https://twitter.com/davidmwessel/status/1253734063153840128

That's a 69.5% to 28.5% map (2% Other), a 41-pt margin. Crazy that Trump still wins WV & WY. If we use the 2020 annual GDP forecast of -5.6% instead we get the more reasonable map below. In general I wouldn't trust economic forecast models for 2020, we're in too weird of a place.