I know you have loads to worry about right now but here’s a #Brexit one to make a mental note of for future reference.

The #IrishSeaBorder & the NI #Protocol

We've a bit of a conundrum here & we need to spell it out.
Because it cd matter BIG TIME.
#UKEUFTA

[sorry ]
1/14

So.
@MichelBarnier reiterated today, the EU is being crystal clear:
The UK needs to get a move on in prepping for customs procedures for goods entering NI from GB.

This means a ‘harder’ Irish Sea border.
But it is what it agreed to in the #Protocol.
2/14 https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/future-partnership/getting-ready-end-transition-period_en

But the UK is being somewhat blasé so far

For it does mean barriers to trade within UK internal market.

We’re talking customs declarations, checks [no point in the former without the latter] & inevitable new controls, inc. products of animal origin (mad cow anyone?)

3/14

+there's those products requiring certification from EU, e.g. medicines
For each one (600+ product lines) there'll have to be a commodity code to see whether EU reg requirements apply.

Bear in mind this is all new to many retailers, who are still just supplying within UK
4/14

& there's more...
See thisblog by Prof Weatherill:

“One wonders if the EU is now regretting not having insisted that the Protocol more clearly says what it does.”

The ambiguity there to salve unionist consciences is doing no one any favours now.

5/14
http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-protocol-on-ireland-northern.html

This is precisely why the EU isn’t letting this one slip.

The UK may say "yeah, whatever" to a UK-EU deal...
But the #Protocol means it will be saying "yeah, whatever" to its own internal market at the same time.

THE UK-EU BORDER WILL FALL WITHIN THE UK.

Yup.
Uh-huh.
6/14

And even beyond that, there's a big Q:

Is the UK a serious negotiating partner or isn’t it?

If it makes a deal, does it stand over it?

If the UK is #notbovvered about a legally-binding international treaty ratified by Westminster, then, aye, there’s cause for concern.

7/14

What is more, if there's a flimsy #UKEUFTA
[without those level playing field arrangements/capacity for data exchange/zero tariffs etc.]
then it means the EU will want to be even more careful about what comes into its single market & customs union from GB.

Via N.Ireland.

8/14

Cos #Protocol means boundary to EU Single Market & Customs Union is now, to all intents & purposes, the Irish Sea.

Hence EU wish to see progress on vital customs procedures.

Evidence from Colin Murray, @sylviademars & @DavidHenigUK is sobering

9/14
https://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-committees/eu-select/protocol-ireland-northern-ireland/first-protocol-evidence-session.pdf

The customs procedures need not be too onerous –

The biggest blow is almost esoteric, i.e. whether traders will see extra hassle GB-NI as worthwhile.

If UK Gov wished to show care for its internal market it could zoom ahead in prep to reduce the burden of that hassle...

10/14

It's not a sign of supplication but of care for UK domestic market to act to:
boost facilities in Belfast/Larne to inspect animal products
design Trusted Trader schemes for companies who cross Irish Sea to supply NI
train UK businesses for new customs rules GB-NI.

11/14

It's really about time UK faces up to what #Protocol means & implements it.

This wd mean it cd negotiate softeners for NI.

Plus make sure NI isn't caught between a rock & a hard place when it comes to future UK-EU deal.

Because [I repeat] Irish Sea = UK/EU trade border.

12/14

What if they don’t bother?
Apart from blowing any credibility as a trustworthy trading partner (& remember news travels worldwide these days), the UK wd basically make a #NoDeal much more likely.

Does it matter?
Well, yes, if you care about UK internal market [see above].
13/14

Foot-dragging, denial & obfuscation only increases the chances of NI being the price paid for the UK’s glassy-eyed denial about what #Brexit means.

Tune in next week, when we have the first meeting of the Specialised Committee on the implementation of the NI #Protocol.

14/14