Update: Today, there were 768* hospital deaths announced for those testing postive for Covid-19 to bring the daily total up to 19,506

A cautious estimate of the total number of UK excess deaths linked to coronavirus stands today at

45,200

* the 768 deaths relates to the 684 announced by @DHSCgovuk plus 84 from a Welsh health board reporting late.

Since the figures do not, in any case, relate to the date of death, it seems appropriate to include all newly reported numbers

There was additional evidence on excess mortality from Northern Ireland today. Sadly, again there were more death registrations in week ending 17 April than my model had expected - because it generally uses cautious assumptions

I have tweaked some of the assumptions to make them more realistic for Northern Ireland and Scotland, plus I have made the English ones more cautious in light of the public health England excess death estimates for week 16.

Now assuming 48% deaths in hospital, not 46%.

Methodology article here - free to read
https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

And">https://www.ft.com/content/6... tweet threat here https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1252841436317315072

ENDS">https://twitter.com/ChrisGile...