Implicit assumption in #Lebanon was always that “someone” will step in to help during times of distress...(if the sh...t hits the fan)

“They” just won’t let things get out of control was historical formula implanted in the country’s DNA

Lebanon is therefore “Resilient” =>

Fair to say that power in #Lebanon has steadily shifted since late 90’s

Built as a country with historical ties to the “West”, another camp was slowly & successfully chipping away at this historical pivot for years

This steady shift away from the West hasn’t come without increased anxiety (more like alarm, shock and disdain) from the pro-Western camps that have dominated #Lebanon almost since its independence

Most capitals in ME Region have Western (read U.S) leaning

#Iran #Syria are the exception

#Iraq of course is shared

Politics inside #Lebanon boils down to which camp to choose

One foot (down to few toes ?) wants to stay with the West

The bigger foot wants to pivot away

Post #Iraq ‘s invasion debacle, the U.S is likely to deal with future conflicts in the region through economic rather than military means

Both #Iran & #Syria are subject to debilitating eco sanctions that have made “economic squeeze” the new weapon of choice in Washington

While #Lebanon is not necessarily part of #Syria #Iran sanctions regime, it has become part of the “economic squeeze” club

Washington knows there is little it can do to influence domestic politics so it's likely to use “economic squeeze” to influence events on the ground

Individual citizens are left as pawns in this regional power struggle. Frustration & anger come to boil when one camp is convinced country is being pulled to the "other direction" than the one he/she wants. As eco squeeze intensifies, such anger & frustration goes in overdrive

Those hoping for the Eco squeeze tool to quickly influence behavior of those in power are likely to be disappointed

Few if any leaders voluntarily hand the keys and walk away in the sunset because the economic hardship has increased or because GDP has declined

In the meantime those who push for use of Eco squeeze as a foreign policy tool are convinced that in the "long run" these policies will work

Sadly, it's Avg citizens who take the brunt of this slow death confrontation

While

One party wants to resist & Other wants to squeeze