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Here's an important discussion that people are missing in this polarized environment. Not only can we not remain in full lock-down forever because of its human costs, we should not. Good luck discussing that though. (Work by @mlipsitch/ @yhgrad and others). https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/10/opinion/its-possible-flatten-curve-too-long/
I did my gut check with local Facebook groups this morning, and indeed, one person had posted an article about getting to herd immunity was immediately jumped on with "so you want to kill grandma, you murderer!". Reality is we have to open up, but with preparation and caution.
Barring a treatment miracle, the question isn't whether to go for herd immunity, but how. No other path. It's also becoming harder to discuss that lock-down has huge costs, too, including mortality spikes. Need to figure out best possible trajectory with what information we have.
Here's another thread about this with a cool preprint at the end. It's a really tough road ahead! (In case there is any misunderstanding: right now, in the US, we *should* be in full lockdown. We're in the crisis stage). https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1246264320402640898
The unfortunate reality is that we are likely to open up in the worst possible way: relax restrictions too early because of political polarization and/or inability to provide proper financial relief to those affected and/or the unscientific policies of closing all parks etc.
TO CLARIFY because it is always too easy to misunderstand. I'm *not* at all suggesting relaxing right now! It's too dangerous to brings people together especially indoors. The point is we need to bring this way down now *and* get ready for controlled reopening. Tough road ahead.
Yes something like that. We locked down too late, we’re still not locking down properly. We didn’t start masks early enough. We are not testing enough. We’re not fully building tracing. Instead of a controlled opening, we may just have a deadly outburst. https://twitter.com/likeluke/status/1253680298862284802
Also, *please* stop explaining trace-and-isolate, *obviously* that's part of the strategy and you're missing the point if you think epidemiologists don't know this.
Also, no need to send me media articles about our uncertainty about SARS-CoV-2 immunity. Yes, that's our reality.
Also, no need to send me media articles about our uncertainty about SARS-CoV-2 immunity. Yes, that's our reality.
Exactly. That's not what the epidemiologists are talking about! That was nuts—just bloodshed. One key Q is when/if people think we might get a vaccine (big unknown) and how much test/trace can work with a functioning economy (maybe a lot? important Q). https://twitter.com/RukhnamaLives/status/1253686060422488065
This is another important point. We aren't ready to and SHOULD NOT relax anything yet in the US and hopefully we will have more clarity soon re:immunity/vaccine. But we will have to make these decisions and consider hard choices under real uncertainty. https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1253687214015463425
Yes, that's the other end of this discussion as well as keeping R(eff) down via supplementary measures: modified indoors rules/masks/UVC in air ducts/vents etc. (which I think we should) *but* no single path is a proven success yet, including S. Korea. https://twitter.com/bXLpedestrian/status/1253689940283719681
