For what it's worth, I think the Greens have now put themselves in a position of maximum danger in Irish politics, and they've done so by doing something completely admirable: actually telling us what they want.

By maximum danger, I broadly mean they are increasingly at risk of having to choose between two bad options: facing an electoral reversal, or entering government on terms unfavourable to themselves.

All of this rests on two assumptions: first, that the Greens are far and away the preferred coalition partners of FF/FG (unlike Inds/Lab/SDs, they can deliver a comfortable majority as a single, cohesive bloc of votes) and second, that FF/FG are actually quite good at politics

Good outcomes for the Greens at this points are either that FF/FG accept all of their demands, or they refuse, either immediately or during formal talks, on a point that lets the Greens walk away with a credible story

However, as FF in particular becomes increasingly desperate to form a government, there's a growing risk to the Greens that the counter-offer from the Civil War parties will appear to be quite good. Far from everything that was asked for, but good enough on each key issue

Moreover, the Greens' main competitors for the third space in government are now less the other centre-left parties, but rather a smattering of centre-right independents who by-and-large want more roads, weaker emissions targets, and greater supports for traditional farming

If FF/FG are smart, which of course they are, they'll play the Green bloc against the Independent bloc quite well. They'll make sure the policy offering to the Greens looks good enough that walking away would seem petulant

At the same time, the more the public argument on climate and emissions is between the Greens on one side and Independents on the other, the more both sides are essentially involved in a proxy argument over who should be given the chance to implement their policies

Walking away from government negotiations without a clear rationale generally isn't a good idea: see the FDP in Germany for an example of a party that started coalition talks, brought them down without a clear narrative as to why, and have struggled to remain relevant since

I assume that there's nothing in the Greens' 17 points that FF/FG couldn't at least bring themselves to make a highly credible counter-offer on, which means the further the Greens go in the government formation process, the harder it is to get out of it credibly

Hanging over all of this is the fact that the Greens really do have a lot to fear from an election in the near future, where FG-Green swing voters (a huge constituency for the party) could so easily be tempted home by COVID-19 and the rise of SF...

... and particularly if FG are seen to offer the Greens most of their demands in government formation talks. While another election isn't too likely in the next few months, I would say most of these factors will still be in play as society emerges from the current crisis

So basically, the Greens, having opened the door to coalition, will find it increasingly hard to walk away if FF/FG, neither of which is a particularly policy-driven party, really do want to tempt them into government...

And of course, the harder it is for the Greens to walk away, the less leverage they have to secure a genuinely good deal, and the higher the risk of entering a coalition on terms less favourable than they will need to remain distinctive and relevant in office.

These are my thoughts, and I look forward to seeing the precise ways in which they will be proved completely wrong by the course of events.