So here's something ill-advised

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a man in possession of a predictive model, must be in want of a playoff series upon which to imagine the outcome.

So, naturally, I've decided to simulate what would happen if the 2019-2020 Detroit Red Wings played the 2014-2015 Buffalo Sabres in a best of seven.

First, the presumptive favourite, the home team in our matchup, with a points percentage of 66%, the 2014-2015 Sabres.

The 5v5 shot rates are staggeringly. The special teams are weak. The goalies show signs of unwonted and unwanted brilliance.

Against them, the underdog, with a points percentage of 55%, the 2019-2020 Red Wings.

The 5v5 shot rates are merely bad, but the power-play is atrocious. The penalty-kill is worse. The shooting is feeble, and the goaltending is heroically dire.

The movable force of nigh-senescent Jimmy Howard and Trevor Daley meets the stoppable object of Patrick Kaleta and not-actually-a-rookie-but-almost Rasmus Ristolainen. The winner gets my dignity and a printout of my worst code as prize.

To choose rosters, I've decided to randomly draw goalies and skaters from the entire regular season, weighed by how much time they played. Will Matt Hackett get a start? Probably not but maybe! Will some guys play even after they were traded away? Yes! I don't care.

Game 1, in Buffalo.

Jonathan Bernier starts for Detroit, Michal Neuvirth for Buffalo.

Cagey first, no scoring.

First goal goes to Nicolas Deslauriers, 2:15 into the 2nd. But only two shifts later, Joe Hicketts answers for Detroit, his first NHL goal! Good for him.

At 4:16 of the third, Detroit takes the lead! Frans Nielsen puts the visitors up. The Sabres get a late power-play, though, and tie it up! Deslauriers again! Tied 2-2 with five to go, overtime looks inevitable.

Game one, overtime: Sabres draw an early power-play on a flagrant, flagrant slash by Madison Bowey, they're 1-for-3 so far while the Red Wings are 0-for-4, stop me if you've heard this one. Nicolas Deslauriers scores his hat-trick goal to win it for the home team, 3-2 for Buffalo

Game 2, in Buffalo, 1-0 for the sabres. Naturally Buffalo drops Neuvirth despite the win to start Enroth instead, Detroit stays with Bernier. Why the change?? the team won't say. twitter is rife with madness.

Much cagier game. Again no scoring in the first.

Early in the second again, though, the first goal; this time Detroit: call-up Turner Elson scores /his/ first NHL goal on a brutal giveaway in front. Game tightens up even more, no scoring until the third when Drew Stafford ties it up on the opening shift.

Just when it looked like the home team was taking control of a tight (some might say slow) 1-1 game midway through the third, another brutal giveaway and Moritz Seider scores //his// first NHL goal to put the wings up. They withstand a late flurry to tie the series at one.

(Detroit wins despite going 0-4 on the powerplay, again)

Series shifts to Detroit, can the wings find even more people to score their first?? Enroth vs Bernier again.

Immediately this game is different, Tyson Strachan scores on his first shift to make it 1-0, Cody Hodgson adds another right after; David Pope gets one back! His first!

Scoring medly continues in the second: Moulson for Buffalo makes it 3-1, Lindström makes it 3-2! His first NHL goal! Then Trevor Daley ties it late in the second. Kaleta and Fabbri trade early third period goals and overtime is needed again.

Deep into double overtime, the wings draw their first powerplay since early in the third on a hotly disputed puck-over-glass call. Desperate for fresh legs, they turn to Valteri Filppula, who scores! Wings win, the power-play is 4-for-5! Is it fixed (it is not fixed)

Game 4, trailing 2-1, the Sabres go back to Neuvirth. Bernier still for Detroit.

Jacob De La Rose opens the scoring on the power-play for detroit early in the first. The power-play! it's fixed! Then Hicketts at EV, and then Larkin! The wings are up 3-0, the series has turned.

Cracks appear right away, though; noted analytics darling Cody Hodgson gets one back on the next shift, then Phil Varone the next shift, and Tyson Strachan completes the comeback early in the third with plenty of time still.

Late in the third, though, it's Brian Lashoff who scores the go-ahead goal! Scenes! The Sabres pull Enroth, though, and Jerry D'Amigo ties it at the buzzer! More overtime.

This time the hero is Matt Larkin, on a supreme individual effort, coast-to-coast, Wings lead the series 3-1 despite giving up a three-goal lead at home, and the series shifts back to Buffalo with the wings cock-a-hoop.

There is a twist in the tale, though, as Jonathan Bernier doesn't make the trip to Buffalo. Jimmy Howard starts instead; still Neuvirth for Buffalo. An all-too-familiar ennui settles over Wings fans despite the 3-1 lead.

Howard is shaky but allows no goals through two; Adam Erne scores late in the first and Dennis Cholowski late in the second, the Wings go into the third up 2 and needing only a tight road period to win the series.

It is not to be, though: Patrick Kaleta scores (with his glove?? illegally???) early in the third and then Armia ties it up midway. Overtime looms yet again but Howard lets in an absolute howler from the red line from Zach Bogosian, who would later say he wasn't trying to score.

Wings return home up 3-2 but disconsolate. The power-play was 0-3, Howard looks like a wreck. Recriminations and ill-will reign supreme.

Game six at home, Howard vs Neuvirth again. Howard is shaky early, allowing goals on back-to-back shots to Ellis and D'Amigo early in the first. Wings fans in the stands pour ashes on their heads. Late in the first Sam Gagner gets one back, though. Anxiety rules the day.

No scoring in the second despite many wild chances, the organist plays the benny hill theme in one of the stoppages prompting boos from the crowd. Early in the third, though, Ryan Kuffner ties it up for Detroit! Another NHL first!

The third is all Sabres, though, and Howard is at sixes-and-sevens throughout. Girgensons scores early and Mark Pysyk scores late, the Sabres win on the road to force game seven, and Wings fans wail and gnash their teeth.

Obviously, obviously this was going to go seven.

Game seven in Buffalo, who will start for Detroit? In warmups it looks like it will be Howard again, but when the puck drops it's Bernier. Is he healthy?? He doesn't look it. Enroth starts again for Buffalo, and the wings score first through Brandon Perlini.

Tyler Myers, on the Sabres top pair, has been completely absent all series, but he scores early in the second to tie it, and then Chris Stewart puts the home team ahead. Have the Sabres big guns finally shown up? The lead doesn't last though, as Dmytro Timashov ties it.

What little offence the sabres can generate this game is mostly from their defenders, and Mike Weber scores on the Sabres first power-play of the game midway through the third to put them up 3-2. Can they hold on??

They can not - the unlikely hero for Detroit is Vili Saarijärvi, who ties it up late in the third - his first NHL goal! On the sabres broadcast the colour guy jokes darkly that now the sabres have to win because all of the wings players in the game have already scored now.

Overtime drags on and on, and excitement quick fades as the game descends into sludge. Triple overtime begins and it looks as though several players are near collapse. The series winner at last is a slapshot from Rasmus Ristolainen, who played exactly 50:00. He falls down in joy.

The red wings power-play went 0-for-6.