So a note about what I mean here by "insurgency," as relates to southern Syria:
• THREAD • https://twitter.com/AbuJamajem/status/1249993066481700864">https://twitter.com/AbuJamaje...
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What I think seems clear and agreed-upon is that in southwest Syria there& #39;s a lot of violence happening.
There are also a large number of ex-rebel militants there who were not removed to northern Syria – as happened elsewhere – and who have a lot of uncontrolled small arms.
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There are also a large number of ex-rebel militants there who were not removed to northern Syria – as happened elsewhere – and who have a lot of uncontrolled small arms.
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But: To call something an "insurgency," I think, involves a political character, and a directionality: It& #39;s violence that is aimed upwards, by insurgents challenging the incumbent authority.
And there does seem to be some of this – for example, attacks claimed by ISIS.
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And there does seem to be some of this – for example, attacks claimed by ISIS.
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But for the south& #39;s other violence, we don& #39;t know. And there are other possible explanations:
• lateral intra-elite competition (either local elites, or between higher-level power centers);
• personal score-settling;
• criminality;
• instigation by foreign country/ies.
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• lateral intra-elite competition (either local elites, or between higher-level power centers);
• personal score-settling;
• criminality;
• instigation by foreign country/ies.
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