Read on Twitter
So a note about what I mean here by "insurgency," as relates to southern Syria:
• THREAD • https://twitter.com/AbuJamajem/status/1249993066481700864
• THREAD • https://twitter.com/AbuJamajem/status/1249993066481700864
What I think seems clear and agreed-upon is that in southwest Syria there's a lot of violence happening.
There are also a large number of ex-rebel militants there who were not removed to northern Syria – as happened elsewhere – and who have a lot of uncontrolled small arms.
2/6
There are also a large number of ex-rebel militants there who were not removed to northern Syria – as happened elsewhere – and who have a lot of uncontrolled small arms.
2/6
But: To call something an "insurgency," I think, involves a political character, and a directionality: It's violence that is aimed upwards, by insurgents challenging the incumbent authority.
And there does seem to be some of this – for example, attacks claimed by ISIS.
3/6
And there does seem to be some of this – for example, attacks claimed by ISIS.
3/6
But for the south's other violence, we don't know. And there are other possible explanations:
• lateral intra-elite competition (either local elites, or between higher-level power centers);
• personal score-settling;
• criminality;
• instigation by foreign country/ies.
4/6
• lateral intra-elite competition (either local elites, or between higher-level power centers);
• personal score-settling;
• criminality;
• instigation by foreign country/ies.
4/6
That there are local grievances and complaints of neglect or abuse by the Syrian state is not, in itself, sufficient to demonstrate that those sentiments are the main driver of violence.
That additional causal link isn't something I've seen established definitively.
5/6
That additional causal link isn't something I've seen established definitively.
5/6
So "insurgent" violence seems to be part of what's happening in the south. And it could be a large part, or even the main part.
But before I take that as given, I would want to know more about who's doing this violence, how they're organized, and why they're acting.
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But before I take that as given, I would want to know more about who's doing this violence, how they're organized, and why they're acting.
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