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It's clear Bolsonaro is moving to a "war footing" to protect himself from impeachment, as health and economic crises get worse. Pull military closer, embrace old-school "Centrão" figures in Congress, stymie threatening investigations - and to hell w Guedes & Moro if necessary
It MIGHT work - but it's risky
Bolsonaro retains 30%-ish support, which shows signs of Trump-like loyalty, may be a firm floor. There's another 20% whose view, polls suggest, amounts to "I don't like him, but I don't want him to quit right now either."
Bolsonaro retains 30%-ish support, which shows signs of Trump-like loyalty, may be a firm floor. There's another 20% whose view, polls suggest, amounts to "I don't like him, but I don't want him to quit right now either."
Congress dislikes Bolsonaro, always has. He doesn't even have a party. The establishment has not moved on him though due to 1) that loyal base 2) continued support from military 3) the sense it would only make crisis worse; some say they're just waiting until end of 2020
But here's the problem: Centrão demanded the head of Federal Police chief, who they find threatening. Bolsonaro fired him overnight. But that could force out Moro, who is more popular than president - & one of few moves that really could erode his loyal 30%
So, best case for Bolsonaro: This all gives him solid "trench" in Congress, 30% stands by him. Muddles through 2020
Worst case: Support slips to 20% or lower, Centrão proves fickle as ever, thousands die from COVID & he shoulders blame, economy crashes, he's out within months
Worst case: Support slips to 20% or lower, Centrão proves fickle as ever, thousands die from COVID & he shoulders blame, economy crashes, he's out within months
