It& #39;s clear Bolsonaro is moving to a "war footing" to protect himself from impeachment, as health and economic crises get worse. Pull military closer, embrace old-school "Centrão" figures in Congress, stymie threatening investigations - and to hell w Guedes & Moro if necessary

It MIGHT work - but it& #39;s risky

Bolsonaro retains 30%-ish support, which shows signs of Trump-like loyalty, may be a firm floor. There& #39;s another 20% whose view, polls suggest, amounts to "I don& #39;t like him, but I don& #39;t want him to quit right now either."

Congress dislikes Bolsonaro, always has. He doesn& #39;t even have a party. The establishment has not moved on him though due to 1) that loyal base 2) continued support from military 3) the sense it would only make crisis worse; some say they& #39;re just waiting until end of 2020

But here& #39;s the problem: Centrão demanded the head of Federal Police chief, who they find threatening. Bolsonaro fired him overnight. But that could force out Moro, who is more popular than president - & one of few moves that really could erode his loyal 30%

So, best case for Bolsonaro: This all gives him solid "trench" in Congress, 30% stands by him. Muddles through 2020

Worst case: Support slips to 20% or lower, Centrão proves fickle as ever, thousands die from COVID & he shoulders blame, economy crashes, he& #39;s out within months