Read on Twitter
numbers validate a high R0 at >4 and a lower than "hyped" asymptomatic case number
so I estimate "natural" herd immunity likely in the range of 75-85% https://twitter.com/jseims/status/1253530412736892928">https://twitter.com/jseims/st...
so I estimate "natural" herd immunity likely in the range of 75-85% https://twitter.com/jseims/status/1253530412736892928">https://twitter.com/jseims/st...
High R0 makes for an excellent alert system, as soon as its spreading uncontrolled in a part of the population you get a warning as hospitals see a surge of casees
Social distancing clearly works, so we know we can slow down R0 suficiently to get it close to 1 or even below
Most governments will enforce lockdowns once the problem its totally out of control, which is way before herd immunity. Overreaction seems to be the norm, even to crazy levels not needed.
Covid19 is severe enough that most people will take it seriously, independent of any measure governement take, that almost guarantee a >20% of the population wont get it
At best, immunity lasts 2-3 years, possibly even 1 year or less. Which makes the case for achieving herd immunity very slowly not viable as antibodies on older cohorts get infected from later cohorts
Most think next waves will be worst, I think the contrary, the virus will start with a higher infection base and longer winter time, but propagation is heavily impacted by social distancing. This first wave caught us by surprise, with no preparation.
Next waves we& #39;ll improve testing capacity, general usage of masks, availability of PPE for protection,... which will make each wave reach at max similar levels of infections but more distributed in time.
We will reach herd immunity when vaccines are ready to distribute at scale or when medical treatment gets to a good enough level where population looses the fear and start acting 100% normal again.
I will repeat once again, this thread is extremely speculative and the numbers I based this predictions on are not proven.
The ONLY reason I took the NYC numbers as valid is because they confirm “my” numbers. Which is idiotic to do, but great as a conversation starter
The ONLY reason I took the NYC numbers as valid is because they confirm “my” numbers. Which is idiotic to do, but great as a conversation starter
