1/ Hey, at least @neil_ferguson is consistent. Here he is in 2005 predicting that bird flu might kill 200 million people. Yes, 200 MILLION. As in 200,000,000.

(Spoiler alert: it didn't.)

By that standard last month's paper was spot on! https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke

2/ Here's the thing: in 2005 nobody in power paid any attention to the Team Apocalypse predictions. The bird flu came and went, like the swine flu in 2009 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968. Yes, some people died. But the world didn't end.

This year, however...

3/ Well, it WOULD have killed 200,000,000, if not for that crazy lockdown that went through 2006, right? I mean, Neil wasn't wrong, his prediction just encompassed a variety of potential outcomes and future pasts. Like Bayes meets the magic 8-Ball meets the Ministry of Truth.