Social distancing in America began March 8-13. Earliest that could reduce deaths is Mar 26-31, so Mar 20-25 is a baseline for deaths before social distancing.

Since then, deaths in states without shelter-in-place orders have grown 68 fold!!

In stats WITH SIPs, it's... 72-fold.

States without SIPs had a MUCH lower base rate of death so communicating this change in death rates in ratio terms is really doing SIP-states a favor.

In absolute deaths-per-capita terms, SIP states have risen by 0.9 deaths per 100k, while non-SIP states are up 0.2.

This does not appear to be driven ONLY by non-SIP states have smaller outbreaks. If we re-allign their trajectories so they they both are t=0 when they had 0.05 deaths per 100k, non-SIP states still have a lower increase.

In fact, *for any period* where I set t=0 as a point where the lockdowns and non-lockdowns are equal in death rate, the SIP states do worse.

So, conditional on *any* selected period where reported deaths were at a similar level as a measure of outbreak scale, non-SIP states have had a better trajectory.

Now look there's no control variables here. There are big differences in terms of network-level exposure to odds of outbreaks initially occurring at all. There are big differences in terms of demographics and density and climate etc.

I'm ABSOLUTELY NOT CLAIMING that shelter-in-place orders lead to higher deaths!

They almost certainly do not!

I'm saying.... if SIPs really have a big effect, then these non-SIP states, where there ARE thousands of confirmed cases and a pretty large number of deaths, SHOULD be having big problems right now, shouldn't they?

Furthermore, you can look at specific cases, lockdowns just don't pan out. Here's examples from 4 European lockdowns where I calculated what the death curve SHOULD have looked like based on the full distribution of expected R0 and time-to-death.

We don't have daily data for the US. We don't even have reliably WEEKLY data for the entire US.

But we do have pretty reliable weekly data for NY, and we can pretty reasonably project what the current week will look like.

NY deaths peaked solidly a week too early!

This makes sense since.... New Yorkers began social distancing 8-14 days BEFORE the lockdown began!

Social distancing works!

But you don't have to threaten Americans to get them to protect their neighbors!

It's not Smart Policymakers Adopting Smart Policies who are beating COVID.

It's the hundreds of millions of Americans who started staying home WEEKS before ordered.

In New York, the SIP order MAAAAYBE increased the extent of social distancing. And that may have saved lives. I don't think New York makes the case for a zero effect. But it definitely makes the case for a very small effect.

Folks, I wanna be 1,000% clear.

My argument this whole time has NEVER been that "social distancing doesn't work" or "herd immunity is a good strategy" or "it's just the flu." These are all stupid and in my view borderline *murderous* things to say.

You can read my advice to churches FROM FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH where I explicitly make the argument in public that according to the dictates of my faith FAILURE TO SOCIALLY DISTANCE IS MURDER.

I'm not a coronatruther here.

But the world has been duped by China's lies and the WHO's support of those lies and desperation for ANYTHING THAT WORKS into adopting a view of COVID centered on Smart Policymakers Making Smart Policy.

Or, even worse, Tough Policymakers Making Touch Policies.

I abhor, loathe, detest, and utterly reject this focus.

All the evidence suggests that WE are beating COVID. Our leaders, EVEN THE SMARTEST ONES, delayed and delayed and delayed until WE FORCED THEM to do SOMETHING.

And by WE I don't mean you "heroic Netflix watchers."

I mean y'all with 3 kids at home with one parent who's been furloughed and you have no idea what the future looks like but you are trying your best to responsibly socially distance.

I see you, single mom receiving WIC who responded to my survey that you dodge the cops to take your kids to the park once a week so that you can have 30 minutes of peace. YOU are winning the battle. Not a Johnny-Come-Lately governor with a SIP.

I see you, pastor who wants to serve his people as best he can, trying to balance the psychological needs of people for community, their spiritual need for support, and the physical need for distancing, and getting creative in your services. YOU are winning the battle.

And I am furious. I am angry. I am absolutely PISSED at the policymakers who CONTINUE TO REFUSE to implement LIFE-SAVING POLICIES like mask requirements, expanded testing, and centralized quarantine.

I have ZERO patience for the negligent manslaughter occurring EVERY SINGLE TIME that Trump or Cuomo or whoever comes on TV AND DOES NOT WEAR A MASK WHILE ON TV.

SET AN EXAMPLE YOU IDIOTS.

And I am DEEPLY WORRIED that the policy focus rather than the people focus is going to kill a lot of people on reopening. We're gonna convince ourselves that what matters is the RULES WE WRITE rather than the LIFESTYLES WE ADOPT.

What we need is not stricter SIPs.

What we need is clear communication about how to adopt every-day all-the-time best practices.

Whether lockdown works or not, they're gonna end BEFORE COVID is totally eradicated. And when they do, we need to keep R0 below 1. That means we need people even in good times to adopt more responsible practices. That's not just a policy question.

My interest in the frontal assault on lockdowns is partly 1) the data supports my argument but also 2) the correct strategy to fight an epidemic like this requires wide-ranging public buy-in and social mobilization, not just leaders Getting Smart And Tough.

@TaupeAvenger Yeah it's amazing how we've just reinvented hotels here