Read on Twitter
Anyone want a thread on #childcare and #reopenCanada using Sasktachewan as the #COVID19 case study (when you stick your neck as the first jurisdiction, you get to be the case study). ....No?...Well, here it is anyway:
First, a disclaimer: I'm not going to comment on testing results, testing capacity, serology or immunity. I'm not an epidemiologist. I know people who are. They are REALLY smart people. I am a lowly policy nerd and a taker of health information.
1) Before #COVID19, half (53%) of Sasktachewanian (I'm from MB, I can prairie) kids 0-5 yrs were in some form of childcare in the province. Source: Stat Can Table 42-10-0004-01 The largest share (48% of 53% or 20K kids total) were in childcare centres (SC Table 42-10-0005-01)
2) On, March 17, the province shut schools. As of March 23, daycares are limited to 8 kids. Centres inside schools are closed. Normally, licensed centres in the province must have a ratio of 1 staff per 3 infants or 5 toddlers or 10 pre-schoolers. Source: https://www.saskatchewan.ca/residents/family-and-social-support/child-care/how-child-care-works
3) At 8 kids per centre, that's 3 staff for infants or 2 staff for toddlers or 1 staff for preschoolers. Let's assume the centres are all non-profit but still try to break even where the biggest costs are space/overhead and staff. What's the logical move as an employer?
4) Yup! Use your 8 spaces for pre-schoolers with lower staff ratios. Yeah, you can charge more to parents for infants & toddlers, but in an environment of reduced services, cost-reduction is, I would argue, at least as or more important than revenue generation.
5) I can't find anything public on whether Saskatchewan followed ON & MB and ordered centres to stop charging fees to parents during the shut-down. But, I'm going to assume things are not so different from ON & MB, so proiders feel pressure not to charge $ if space unavailable.
6) Homecare providers have, essentially, been untouched by government COVID rules in Sasktachewan. The limit before was 8 kids. The limit now is 8 kids. So the 12K kids in that form of care may not have lost services.
7) OTOH, did parents keep their kids in care and keep paying fees to those homecare providers? I have no info. If you do, please share. But, I can imagine that social distancing rules that included no playdates, no use of playgrounds, etc https://www.regina.ca/home-property/safety-emergencies/emergency-preparedness/covid-19/ sure sounded...
like parents were being told to "keep your germy kids at home, away from each other and away from me!"
8) Which brings me to the plan to re-open. Childcare is not absent from the plan. It's there, at Phase 3: https://www.saskatchewan.ca/government/health-care-administration-and-provider-resources/treatment-procedures-and-guidelines/emerging-public-health-issues/2019-novel-coronavirus/re-open-saskatchewan-plan/phases-of-re-open-saskatchewan/phase-three at the same point that you can go get that tattoo (yes, Izzy, yes we're already agreed) or get back to the gym (not advised if >40, so not me, fine).
9) At Phase 3, childcare centres will be able to not quite double spaces to 15 kids each. See my earlier tweet on the economics of centres with constrained revenues, (some largely fixed) overhead costs but variable labour costs.
10) Here's what Saskatchewan parents told Stat Can (data release was just last year) about what happens when they can't find childcare (multiple answers allowed). Note that Phase 3 prohibits multiple care providers per kid so that option is out.
11) I think this should give us *some* sense that an important share of the parents of 20K kids in the province using centres may not be able to return to work in Phases 1, 2 or even 3 because they will not have childcare. This is even before dealing with school-aged kids.
12) I can't find a mention of schools in the re-open plan. I presume they reopen at some point but maybe not until closer to Phase 5 when larger public gatherings are ok again (?????). For now, signals seem to be "September". https://regina.ctvnews.ca/sask-school-divisions-release-2020-21-calendars-eye-pre-labour-day-start-1.4905619
13) So, let's turn to policy questions: Will ECE workers be willing to come back in Phase 3 and beyond? If hours are reduced for some length of time until restrictions are lifted, what then? Is this another PSW/LTC worker situation waiting to happen? Will CC spaces come back?
14) Will parents feel confident sending their little kids back to daycare, or will they take a wait and see approach? There's some evidence that people were doing some parts of social distancing before they were told to (e.g. OpenTable data).
15) I searched for "job-protection" in the provincial plan. Only protection being discussed is PPE, which is obviously critically important. But, if parents can't find or feel childcare is risky, will employers be willing to accommodate?
16) In 2 parent households, especially if some kids are school-aged and schools remain closed until an un-specified time (Fall ?), one parent likely has to stay home. CERB remains available until Oct. 3. Who stays on CERB, who rejoins the paid workforce?
Families aren't dumb. They want to start earning $ again ASAP. Think of within-family differences in take-home pay. Think of what often predicts those differences pretty well in hetero couples....
17) There may be a 5-phase plan with attention to sectors (retail vs food service is clear in Saskatchewan plan), but those phases may roll-out very differently for parents and for moms in particular.
18) Are we ok with moms staying out of work for longer? Do we have a plan for that? I didn't see it in the Saskatchewan plan. Again, I'm not picking on them. They are the case study here because they were first to be out with a written plan.
19) Other provinces will follow soon. Same Qs will apply to them. There aren't easy answers. But so long as we pretend the "breadwinner" model of families applies and is preferable, we won't get any real answers.
20) @ArmineYalnizyan has been talking about the "Shesession". She, @tammyschirle and @LindsayTedds and I have been saying childcare will be key to re-opening. Hope the above case study is illustrative of why.
