It can be very challenging to assess what information to believe. One simple way to evaluate evidence is via something called "Hill& #39;s Criteria", https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="9️⃣" title="Keycap digit nine" aria-label="Emoji: Keycap digit nine"> considerations to help assess whether an observation has a *causal* component

I& #39;ll describe them using xkcd comics https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🎉" title="Party popper" aria-label="Emoji: Party popper">

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Sir Austin Bradford Hill, a statistician & epidemiologist, created a list of guidelines for evaluating whether there is evidence of a causal relationship. He determined the following aspects ought to be considered when assessing causality

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1898525/pdf/procrsmed00196-0010.pdf

2/12">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="1️⃣" title="Keycap digit one" aria-label="Emoji: Keycap digit one"> Strength https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💪" title="Flexed biceps" aria-label="Emoji: Flexed biceps">

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">How big is the effect you are seeing?
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">Note: Hill suggests that huge effects can suggest causality, however this does not mean small effects cannot

https://xkcd.com/539/ 

3/12">https://xkcd.com/539/"...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="2️⃣" title="Keycap digit two" aria-label="Emoji: Keycap digit two"> Consistency

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">This is essentially reproducibility & replicability
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">Can your analysis be reproduced?
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">Has anyone been able to replicate your findings?

http://xkcd.com/242/ 
4/12">https://xkcd.com/242/"...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="3️⃣" title="Keycap digit three" aria-label="Emoji: Keycap digit three"> Specificity

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index"> Can the association be pinpointed to a specific cause with no other plausible explanation?

http://xkcd.com/1217/ 

5/12">https://xkcd.com/1217/&quo...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="4️⃣" title="Keycap digit four" aria-label="Emoji: Keycap digit four"> Temporality https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⏰" title="Alarm clock" aria-label="Emoji: Alarm clock">

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">Does the timeline make sense?
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">In general, the exposure ought to come before the outcome it is said to cause.

http://xkcd.com/925/ 
6/12">https://xkcd.com/925/"...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="5️⃣" title="Keycap digit five" aria-label="Emoji: Keycap digit five"> Biological gradient

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">The wording of this point makes it a bit difficult to untangle from the medical application, but generally this refers to a dose effect
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">Does increasing an exposure yield a change in the outcome.

http://xkcd.com/323/ 
7/12">https://xkcd.com/323/"...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="6️⃣" title="Keycap digit six" aria-label="Emoji: Keycap digit six"> Plausibility

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">Does the causal relationship make sense?
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">This is also a tricky one since plausibility depends on knowledge at the time. If we found it perfectly plausible, we may not need statistics to show the relationship.

http://xkcd.com/605/ 
8/12">https://xkcd.com/605/"...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="7️⃣" title="Keycap digit seven" aria-label="Emoji: Keycap digit seven"> Coherence

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">Similar to plausibility, is there a logical argument that can be made by/to experts in the field regarding causality.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index">Does it fit into the understanding of the field

http://xkcd.com/1170/ 
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https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="8️⃣" title="Keycap digit eight" aria-label="Emoji: Keycap digit eight"> Experiment https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👩‍🔬" title="Woman scientist" aria-label="Emoji: Woman scientist">

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index"> If a controlled experiment can take place, this can strengthen the argument for causality
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index"> I view this as a general attempt to implement a counterfactual analysis.

http://xkcd.com/1462/ 
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https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="9️⃣" title="Keycap digit nine" aria-label="Emoji: Keycap digit nine"> Analogy https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👥" title="Busts in silhouette" aria-label="Emoji: Busts in silhouette">

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Right pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Right pointing backhand index"> Have we seen a similar effect from a similar exposure?

http://xkcd.com/882/ 
11/12">https://xkcd.com/882/"...

There is lots of incoming information and data these days, hopefully these principles can help a bit with sifting through the noise! I have a blogpost version of this here if that is your https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🍵" title="Teacup without handle" aria-label="Emoji: Teacup without handle"> cup of tea:

https://livefreeordichotomize.com/2016/12/15/hill-for-the-data-scientist-an-xkcd-story/

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