Cuomo closed NY assuming that 1 million cases at Apex will lead to 130K in the hospital + 30K ICUs all at once. Actual ICUs were way less; Cuomo credits mitigation. However NY already had 2.7 million cases. In Cuomo math that’s 351,000 hospitalizations + 81,000 ICUs all at once.

Cuomo suggests we did not need 30K ICUs at once (out of 1 million cases) because mitigation worked (meaning we didn’t have close to 1 million cases).

Um, tests indicate NY already HAD 2.7 million cases despite mitigation.

Point? His assumptions about the ICU need is/was flawed.

Cuomo is keeping NY closed under the old assumption of a very high Hospital/ICU rate and that mitigation saved the day.

Turns out mitigation did not work as good as Cuomo thinks. Instead, we didn’t need so many ICUs because the ICU rate is a fraction of what he thinks it is.

If/since NY already had this week 2.7 million cases, it easly had more than half of that a few weeks ago which led to the Apex the second week of April.

1.6 million cases.

5,100 in ICU at high point.

0.31% ICU rate.

Cuomo still operates under an assumed 3.0% ICU Rate.