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Preliminary data from a #coronavirus antibody study of 3,000 people in NY show a 13.9%(!) infection rate.NYC: 21.2%
Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%
Rest of NY: 3.6%
@NYGovCuomo says the case-fatality rate may be 0.5%, but actual death toll still not known https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html
These results suggest that >1.7 million people in #NYC, and >2.6 million people in #NY state have already been infected with #coronavirus, nearly TEN-FOLD HIGHER than the 268,581 confirmed #COVID19 cases NY state has recorded.
Important: The antibody samples were taken from people out shopping (NOT a random sample), which may have increased their exposure to #coronavirus, BUT most were not actively sick or living in nursing homes. And no one who died from #COVID19 was tested for antibodies.
Because a random sample was NOT taken (instead, samples were taken from people out shopping), it's possible that the % with antibodies in this study is HIGHER than the actual %. Although this study did NOT include actively ill or nursing home residents, where % infected is HIGH.
Unfortunately, even if these early data are correct, and 21% of people in #NYC really do have #coronavirus antibodies, we are nowhere close to the >70-80% level needed to reach "herd immunity."
And NYC likely has a much HIGHER % infected than other US regions/hot zones.
And NYC likely has a much HIGHER % infected than other US regions/hot zones.
Although these early data suggest that the case-fatality rate (CFR) may be ~0.5% in NY, it will take more time to determine the real CFR. The *actual* #COVID19 death toll is likely to rise, as prior "unexpected" deaths are investigated, and samples are tested for #coronavirus.
