(1/4) Contrary to what it seems everyone understood, govt is apparently NOT going to increase CSG for each child recipient. Instead, they'll increase R500 per adult caregiver. This is a much smaller transfer to the poor - shown in graph below - and is not what SALDRU modeled

(2/4) Green bars show average monthly per person income increase from package announced Tuesday, if it was *per child* R500 CSG top-up.

Purple bars show same package but with *per caregiver* R500 CSG top-up.

Caregiver version is much smaller increase at bottom of distribution

(3/4) Green & purple bars use our understanding of Special COVID grant based on previous modeling. But seems govt may implement something much smaller, & of course implementation will be difficult. Blue bars show scenario with caregiver top-up & no COVID grant, as lower bound.

(4/4) So compared to euphoria I felt on Tuesday night, feel pretty despondent now. Main issue is that caregiver top-up means total spend much less than announcement seemed to suggest. Will need to be careful monitoring of how grants are implemented & actual spend going forward