One more short thread, with caveat that I am no expert here.

There are two possibilities: the antibody tests are very accurate and many more people have had COVID-19 than we earlier thought we knew, or they are not so accurate and infection isn’t as widely spread as we thought.

If the first possibility is true, then (1) the virus isn’t nearly as deadly or harmful OVERALL as we thought, although it can be very deadly or harmful for specific vulnerable people. (2) The key to watch will be hospital utilization numbers — they’ll pick up the serious cases.

If, instead, the second possibility is true, then the infection isn’t as widespread as we may have thought. For those for whom the test was accurate, see my preceding tweet. For everyone else, they aren’t a a problem. Either way, hospitalization utilization will be key.

Either way, unless I am missing something, it seems that we should be open to reopen very soon, provided (1) we continue to observe proven measures that protect everyone, such as social distancing and (2) our hospitals can handle any new cases of people who do get seriously ill.

Moreover, because this is primarily a local problem, these calculations and decisions need to be made first at the local level, with states involved only on matters that regard public safety of surrounding areas and the federal government involved mostly in the background.

Two last points: (1) if we all use common sense and if we are all prepared to adjust if the evidence mounts that we reopened an area too soon or too broadly, we can do this. We voluntarily shut down even before we were ordered to do it; we can be equally responsible in reopening.

Last point (2): we all have to accept the fact that none of this is an exact science; we have to proceed on our best judgment and accept the fact up front that we could be wrong. It’s okay to be wrong. It’s not okay to be too afraid even to try because of the fear of being wrong.