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Finally, an antibody test in a high-prevalence area (NYC)!
21% of New Yorkers infected + 1% death rate = 17,600 deaths
That's not too far off from the 15,400 reported by the city. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-than-21-of-new-york-city-residents-tested-for-coronavirus-antibodies-were-positive-says-gov-cuomo-2020-04-23
21% of New Yorkers infected + 1% death rate = 17,600 deaths
That's not too far off from the 15,400 reported by the city. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-than-21-of-new-york-city-residents-tested-for-coronavirus-antibodies-were-positive-says-gov-cuomo-2020-04-23
All the high-quality studies I've seen seem to point to a "true" coronavirus death rate (IFR) of slightly under 1%. This is yet another.
But remember, don't listen to me, listen to an expert! https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253398325245603840
And remember, these are the early days of antibody testing, so much more (and better) data is still to come! https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1253388854138208258
Keep in mind that a 1% "true" death rate (IFR) would mean that if coronavirus were allowed to run rampant, over 2 million Americans would likely die. A worse population loss, in percentage terms, than the Spanish Flu.
