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Let’s stop with the “It’s just a bad flu” stuff. NYS serology data shows a 13.9% infection rate across NYS, 21% in NYC. That means ~20k deaths (15k confirmed) among 2.7M infected statewide for a 0.74% infected fatality risk (IFR) 1/ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html
The CDC says the number of symptomatic cases of flu in the US range from 10 to 45 million (avg 28.6M) but serology shows only ~25% of people infected with flu have symptoms so in typical year ~100M people get the flu 2/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4586318/
The CDC estimates 12 to 61,000 people a year die of the flu (37,462 avg). On average only 0.03% of people infected with influenza end up dying of influenza. COVID-19 is more than 20 time more lethal. It’s way worse than just a bad flu 3/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
These numbers are consistent with some other unfortunate “experiments” we have conducted. Among 712 passengers and crew infected on the Diamond Princess, 13 have died (IFR 1.8% in this elderly population) and 4 are still in serious condition 4/
Among 678 healthy young sailors on the Roosevelt, 1 is in the ICU and 1 has died (IFR 0.14% in healthy sailors). That still worse than the population average IFR for influenza 5/ https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/04/20/french-carrier-surpasses-theodore-roosevelt-with-over-1000-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19/
Bottom line, I don’t care how the Stanford statisticians try to massage their data, COVID-19 is a far more serious illness than seasonal influenza. But we all knew that, didn’t we 6/
BTW, not happy to see COVID19 go from science by preprint to science by press release. The New York State Department of Public Health has a long tradition of excellent work, I’m really hoping and expecting to see preprints and publications on their work soon
7/fin
7/fin
