If 20% of New Yorkers have been infected so far, 14,427 deaths on 8.4 million people would imply an IFR of 0.86%. That's wildly worse than what Fauci or I or most serious people thought at the end of Feb. https://www.thedailybeast.com/gov-cuomo-says-20-percent-of-1300-new-yorkers-tested-positive-for-antibodies?source=cheats&via=rss

Aside from the Fed, nearly everything about covid has played out worse than I'd expected. Containment, testing, early/consistent use of masks, the inability of Congress to avoid mass employment disruption, how long it is taking us to get case counts down. It's brutal.