The 2020 Draft Thread Starts Here

I& #39;ll be breaking down the draft and how it impacts fantasy football here. Specifically, I& #39;ll be focusing on the running backs - but I& #39;ll discuss other positions as well.

Welcome aboard!

( Don& #39;t forget to bookmarkhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔖" title="Bookmark" aria-label="Emoji: Bookmark">)

1:43 PM EST
Very few running backs are projected to go in the 1st round this year.

How does that impact the projections? https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⤵️" title="Arrow pointing rightwards then curving downwards" aria-label="Emoji: Arrow pointing rightwards then curving downwards">
https://breakoutfinder.com/keeneys-running-back-model-comparing-2020-to-past-draft-classes/

Here">https://breakoutfinder.com/keeneys-r... are the pre-draft projection ranges (James Robinson: 22 with a 6th round pick isn& #39;t shown)

1:45 PM EST
How does a player& #39;s draft round affect their projections?

Here& #39;s the projection distributions by draft round (& #39;03-17).

1:55 PM EST

Looking at the impact of draft-round in another way, here are the actual breakout rates by draft round for the sample I used in my model.

As a fantasy analyst, I& #39;m rooting for more 1st round running backs. As an NFL analyst, I& #39;m in the RBDM camp.

2:00 PM EST

If you have more questions about the model, here are sources you can dig into:

1/ the article
https://breakoutfinder.com/early-stages-identifying-and-exploiting-rookie-talent-at-the-running-back-position-a-model/

2/">https://breakoutfinder.com/early-sta... a mini-Reddit AMA https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/g3d6ud/breakout_finder_using_a_model_to_identify_which/">https://www.reddit.com/r/Dynasty...

2:01 PM EST

If you have any questions (dynasty, rookies, draft, & #39;rona, Paraguay, whatever) send them over and I& #39;ll answer them after a quick break.

2:23 PM EST

Here are the tiers I prefer to use when I categorize prospects.

Since 2003, the average running back draft class has 4.8 projected breakouts, 2 of which are elite prospects.

JT, Akers, and Dobbins all have a shot if they go R1.

2:25 PM EST

The best way to compare prospects within the model by using this probability chart. It& #39;s already got the confidence intervals built-in... and it& #39;s based on 10,000 simulations of the actual error distributionhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💪" title="Flexed biceps" aria-label="Emoji: Flexed biceps">

2:45 PM EST

*whispers*

If you are enjoying this thread, I would be honored if you considered liking, following, and retweetinghttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔁" title="Clockwise rightwards and leftwards open circle arrows" aria-label="Emoji: Clockwise rightwards and leftwards open circle arrows">

But - no pressure. If you want to keep this info hidden away for, um,,, "competitive" reasons... I get it. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😏" title="Smirking face" aria-label="Emoji: Smirking face">