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The 2020 Draft Thread Starts Here
I'll be breaking down the draft and how it impacts fantasy football here. Specifically, I'll be focusing on the running backs - but I'll discuss other positions as well.
Welcome aboard!
( Don't forget to bookmark
)
I'll be breaking down the draft and how it impacts fantasy football here. Specifically, I'll be focusing on the running backs - but I'll discuss other positions as well.
Welcome aboard!
( Don't forget to bookmark
)
1:43 PM EST
Very few running backs are projected to go in the 1st round this year.
How does that impact the projections?
https://breakoutfinder.com/keeneys-running-back-model-comparing-2020-to-past-draft-classes/
Here are the pre-draft projection ranges (James Robinson: 22 with a 6th round pick isn't shown)
Very few running backs are projected to go in the 1st round this year.
How does that impact the projections?
https://breakoutfinder.com/keeneys-running-back-model-comparing-2020-to-past-draft-classes/
Here are the pre-draft projection ranges (James Robinson: 22 with a 6th round pick isn't shown)
1:45 PM EST
How does a player's draft round affect their projections?
Here's the projection distributions by draft round ('03-17).
How does a player's draft round affect their projections?
Here's the projection distributions by draft round ('03-17).
1:55 PM EST
Looking at the impact of draft-round in another way, here are the actual breakout rates by draft round for the sample I used in my model.
As a fantasy analyst, I'm rooting for more 1st round running backs. As an NFL analyst, I'm in the RBDM camp.
Looking at the impact of draft-round in another way, here are the actual breakout rates by draft round for the sample I used in my model.
As a fantasy analyst, I'm rooting for more 1st round running backs. As an NFL analyst, I'm in the RBDM camp.
2:00 PM EST
If you have more questions about the model, here are sources you can dig into:
1/ the article
https://breakoutfinder.com/early-stages-identifying-and-exploiting-rookie-talent-at-the-running-back-position-a-model/
2/ a mini-Reddit AMA https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/g3d6ud/breakout_finder_using_a_model_to_identify_which/
If you have more questions about the model, here are sources you can dig into:
1/ the article
https://breakoutfinder.com/early-stages-identifying-and-exploiting-rookie-talent-at-the-running-back-position-a-model/
2/ a mini-Reddit AMA https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/g3d6ud/breakout_finder_using_a_model_to_identify_which/
2:01 PM EST
If you have any questions (dynasty, rookies, draft, 'rona, Paraguay, whatever) send them over and I'll answer them after a quick break.
If you have any questions (dynasty, rookies, draft, 'rona, Paraguay, whatever) send them over and I'll answer them after a quick break.
2:23 PM EST
Here are the tiers I prefer to use when I categorize prospects.
Since 2003, the average running back draft class has 4.8 projected breakouts, 2 of which are elite prospects.
JT, Akers, and Dobbins all have a shot if they go R1.
Here are the tiers I prefer to use when I categorize prospects.
Since 2003, the average running back draft class has 4.8 projected breakouts, 2 of which are elite prospects.
JT, Akers, and Dobbins all have a shot if they go R1.
2:25 PM EST
The best way to compare prospects within the model by using this probability chart. It's already got the confidence intervals built-in... and it's based on 10,000 simulations of the actual error distribution
The best way to compare prospects within the model by using this probability chart. It's already got the confidence intervals built-in... and it's based on 10,000 simulations of the actual error distribution
2:45 PM EST
*whispers*
If you are enjoying this thread, I would be honored if you considered liking, following, and retweeting
But - no pressure. If you want to keep this info hidden away for, um,,, "competitive" reasons... I get it.
*whispers*
If you are enjoying this thread, I would be honored if you considered liking, following, and retweeting
But - no pressure. If you want to keep this info hidden away for, um,,, "competitive" reasons... I get it.
