Thread by @Comparativist, Random thoughts / speculation about the implications of the NY sero survey. [...]

Random thoughts / speculation about the implications of the NY sero survey. I’m sure most of this will be proven wrong, but this is where my instincts are. Feel free to mute...

- IFR is probably going to settle between 0.5 and 1%.

- It’ll be announced soon that IFR in NYC is 0.55%. The announcement will have social and political consequences, b/c anything <1% is cognitively discounted (e.g., why shops advertise 99¢). Much more pressure to re-open econ

- nearly every model is wrong because we’ve had the wrong inputs. They range from hospitalization rates, IFR, and asymptomatic rates. Every letter in the SIER acronym (susceptible, infected, exposed, recovered) is a variable that needs to be updated now.

- Very, very few countries are ever going to have the capacity to #TestAndTrace in time. I don’t know what the update models will look like, but my hunch is they’re going to lean ‘almost uncontainable’ after a certain threshold number.

- the numbers are so different than a lot people who’ve been paying attention (expert, credible, and otherwise) expected, I think a lot of ppl are going to have one of my first instincts: something along the lines of “the previous estimates were correct, there’s something new”

- to wit, for me that meant wondering if this finally evidence of different strains producing the same antibodies but having very different clinical characteristics. China has been incessant that they only saw 3-5% asymptomatics. Maybe NYC has a milder strain mixed in?

- I would go further and add that this may wind up supporting my hypothesis that most infections we see today were sparked by Second Wave imports - maybe they slipped in everywhere by being milder & asymptomatic.

[Red dots US, purple line is CN lineage]
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253378580320378880?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati...

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253378580320378880?s=21

Jumping a hundred steps ahead of anything we actually know yet: if a scenario like turned out true and could be proven, there might be an argument for using that strain as a Poor Man’s Vaccine for herd immunity.

Again: 100 steps ahead of anything we know
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253381599569182720?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253381599569182720">https://twitter.com/comparati...

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253381599569182720?s=21

- except it’s not actually “a hundred steps ahead of what we know.” It’s a few weeks. That’s when Wuhan will finish their sero survey. If that comes back with the numbers they’ve been insisting on all along, and they could prove it and open up their raw data for review....

I was going to write "question the methodology" but didn& #39;t have space. Every other sero survey has been found to have serious issues.

He& #39;s either correct or in shock b/c it& #39;s so different. Anyone& #39;s guess right now.

https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253378560204484608?s=19">https://twitter.com/Comparati...

https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253378560204484608?s=19

That was quick.

https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253376691952447488?s=19">https://twitter.com/Comparati...

https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253376691952447488?s=19

Cuomo would have a political interest in promoting ‘iceberg theory.’ It is notable this wasn’t even a pre-print... just numbers that flashed up during a press conference. Sero tests produce false positive, which messes up confidence intervals.

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253390396803047424?s=21">https://twitter.com/comparati... https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253390396803047424">https://twitter.com/comparati...

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253390396803047424?s=21

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