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Random thoughts / speculation about the implications of the NY sero survey. Iâm sure most of this will be proven wrong, but this is where my instincts are. Feel free to mute...
- IFR is probably going to settle between 0.5 and 1%.
- Itâll be announced soon that IFR in NYC is 0.55%. The announcement will have social and political consequences, b/c anything <1% is cognitively discounted (e.g., why shops advertise 99Âą). Much more pressure to re-open econ
- Itâll be announced soon that IFR in NYC is 0.55%. The announcement will have social and political consequences, b/c anything <1% is cognitively discounted (e.g., why shops advertise 99Âą). Much more pressure to re-open econ
- nearly every model is wrong because weâve had the wrong inputs. They range from hospitalization rates, IFR, and asymptomatic rates. Every letter in the SIER acronym (susceptible, infected, exposed, recovered) is a variable that needs to be updated now.
- Very, very few countries are ever going to have the capacity to #TestAndTrace in time. I donât know what the update models will look like, but my hunch is theyâre going to lean âalmost uncontainableâ after a certain threshold number.
- the numbers are so different than a lot people whoâve been paying attention (expert, credible, and otherwise) expected, I think a lot of ppl are going to have one of my first instincts: something along the lines of âthe previous estimates were correct, thereâs something newâ
- to wit, for me that meant wondering if this finally evidence of different strains producing the same antibodies but having very different clinical characteristics. China has been incessant that they only saw 3-5% asymptomatics. Maybe NYC has a milder strain mixed in?
- I would go further and add that this may wind up supporting my hypothesis that most infections we see today were sparked by Second Wave imports - maybe they slipped in everywhere by being milder & asymptomatic.
[Red dots US, purple line is CN lineage]
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253378580320378880?s=21
![- I would go further and add that this may wind up supporting my hypothesis that most infections we see today were sparked by Second Wave imports - maybe they slipped in everywhere by being milder & asymptomatic. [Red dots US, purple line is CN lineage] https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253378580320378880?s=21](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWTn57YUEAEdfXh.jpg "- I would go further and add that this may wind up supporting my hypothesis that most infections we see today were sparked by Second Wave imports - maybe they slipped in everywhere by being milder & asymptomatic. [Red dots US, purple line is CN lineage] https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253378580320378880?s=21")
[Red dots US, purple line is CN lineage]
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253378580320378880?s=21
Jumping a hundred steps ahead of anything we actually know yet: if a scenario like turned out true and could be proven, there might be an argument for using that strain as a Poor Manâs Vaccine for herd immunity.
Again: 100 steps ahead of anything we know
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253381599569182720?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253381599569182720
Again: 100 steps ahead of anything we know
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253381599569182720?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253381599569182720
- except itâs not actually âa hundred steps ahead of what we know.â Itâs a few weeks. Thatâs when Wuhan will finish their sero survey. If that comes back with the numbers theyâve been insisting on all along, and they could prove it and open up their raw data for review....
I was going to write "question the methodology" but didn't have space. Every other sero survey has been found to have serious issues.
He's either correct or in shock b/c it's so different. Anyone's guess right now.
https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253378560204484608?s=19
He's either correct or in shock b/c it's so different. Anyone's guess right now.
https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1253378560204484608?s=19
Cuomo would have a political interest in promoting âiceberg theory.â It is notable this wasnât even a pre-print... just numbers that flashed up during a press conference. Sero tests produce false positive, which messes up confidence intervals.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253390396803047424?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253390396803047424
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253390396803047424?s=21 https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1253390396803047424
