Ok, #econtwitter time for my thread about what I've learned in asking people about the horrible job market, as well as my own accumulated wisdom. The first thing I want to say is: you matter. As a person, as a human being, as an individual separate from your accomplishments.

People who went on the market in the '08-09 financial crisis report very mixed experiences. It seems like schools "at the top" were still hiring. That might be worse this year, as some top schools have already announced hiring freezes.

One difference appears to be that this crisis more directly affects schools' projected bottom lines--they may lose enrollments, and thus tuition money, rather than just endowments and funding taking a hit. We won't know how bad the job market is until we see postings in Sept.

So, between now and then, students who will be 6th years should plan as though you're going on the market. As @BerkouwerS person put it "There is no scenario in which the best use of your time right now is not to write as good a job market paper as possible."

Rising 5th year students might consider waiting, and thus should be looking into and talking to their departments about funding. Which, as I understand it, is how we got to the 6-yr equilibrium in the first place, during '08 crisis. Plz let's not go to 7: https://twitter.com/femonomics/status/1243506727426895878

Note that the above tweet links to this doc on announced hiring freezes: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KohP4xZdN8BZy1OMeXCAGagswvUOWpOws72eDKpBhI4/edit
An important thing is that it's not really clear which are staff versus faculty hiring freezes. And, it's not clear whether they will apply to the 2020-21 hiring season.

People on the market in '08-09 said that the reality was that the market WAS different. There were just fewer jobs available. It meant being more flexible in what they were looking for. That cohort appears to have moved more times early in their career than typical.

One person's advice: If staying in academia is your key priority, then look for a job that gives you time to do research above all other things. That way, you can publish papers, and then move. This person started at Fed, moved twice before getting tenure at a great institution.

A friend, '09 grad, started below where he wanted to be, published, and then did the market multiple times after, now tenured someplace great. Post-docs or policy jobs that give time for research are great for future moves. Conditional on papers, salary has low path dependency.

This is true every year, but more so now: Your first job is a noisy draw. Over time, your outcome can converge to the true "mean" of distribution. The key thing to avoid negative shocks getting baked in is to preserve your ability to do research. Your papers are your capital.

BUT, you might have other priorities! It's also ok to prioritize location needs, or salary, or other things rather than just long-term academic prestige. You need to look at things holistically and decide what will make you the happiest whole person and work for your family.

And I know so many people who went into the private sector and are extremely happy and well compensated. An Econ PhD has a lot of long-term value on the job market, even if you graduate in a shitty year. For now, focus on what you can control: building up your capital by writing.

I know it's extremely hard to focus with all the stress (not to mention childcare, if you have kids). I really recommend using some kind of time tracking and accountability support group to chip away at a project a little bit each day. Check out: https://www.facultydiversity.org 

And: take care of yourself. Speak to your school's counseling service. Talk to people outside academia who are just so impressed you're getting a PhD (an amazing accomplishment!). Spend time in nature or whatever fuels you. Because: you are a person first, not just an economist.