Two options now:
1. Lengthen lockdown, get transmission close to zero, don't loosen until capacity for mass test-and-trace. Contain virus.
2. Loosen lockdown soon, but keep social distancing in place to keep R below 1 until vaccine. Let virus slowly move through population.

Yesterday CMO implied option 2 would be focus, today Hancock is heavily hinting at 1. A very interesting split. I think Hancock has better sense of public mood.

I would guess Sunak/Gove, who want lockdown loosened, think it will take too long or require too much state mobilisation to get test-and-trace in place so might as well go for 2.

Economically, option 1 is risky. It has big potential upside - intensified lockdown then test-and-trace means economy gets back to something close to normal before vaccine. BUT if we intensify lockdown and test-and-trace capacity never arrives, big hit for minimal economic gain.

Economically, option 2 is safer. There is a risk to life is we get second peaks, but doesn't rely on extraordinary increase in testing capacity, and we can immediately ease costs of lockdown.