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As promised: Why we DON’T need ANOTHER South African Covid dashboard that merely re-presents the data in the public domain. (A thread 1/26)
i. On top of that, NOT ALL infections are being picked up. Possibly 70% of infections are asymptomatic but contagious. And even those with mild symptoms may not be identified. The number of cases reported is probably underestimated by about 10 times. (14/26)
n. (On this, see the excellent thread from @AndrewNoymer https://twitter.com/AndrewNoymer/status/1241620288825167874) (19/26)
They certainly do NOT inform expert opinion, or the response from those tasked with responding. So what this proliferation is really about is this: producers driving eyeballs to websites; and pretending that they are experts (cf Zapiro: https://www.zapiro.com/200419dm ). (24/26)
In other words, you, the viewer, are the product. Not the data. Caveat lector! Fin (26/26)
j. The data on deaths are curious. More positive cases in GT; more deaths in WC. What’s going on? (15/26)
k. The data on deaths reflect only direct-direct deaths (ie. deaths from Covid, reported as Covid). Deaths from Covid, attributed to other sources are not being reported as such. (16/26)
l. And there are the deaths that are NOT Covid-related that will emerge as the health system gets overloaded. And –finally- the deaths that will NOT occur from other causes in the near future as a result of premature Covid-mortality. (17/26)
m. This is a global phenomenon (see the NYTimes piece from yesterday: http://nyti.ms/34QerxA ). In South Africa, the SAMRC has made public its recent near-real-time mortality monitoring system ( https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa?bc=254). (18/26)
o. This system will allow us to track the deviation of deaths from a historical, ‘normal’ pattern. But the deaths REPORTED bear little or no resemblance to ACTUAL mortality. (end of subthread) (20/26)
And what you CANNOT do, is try to extrapolate from whatever trend you currently see (see above; changing testing protocols; new screening and testing programmes). So please: DON’T. (22/26)
