Read on Twitter
This so totally confirms my priors that of course I believe it. :-) But it's also almost by definition a more meaningful result than the ones that have come out of California and other low-infection places https://twitter.com/irin/status/1253351535226097669
This implies that actual infections are about 13X confirmed cases, and that the infection fatality rate so far (using the NYC estimate that includes probably coronavirus deaths) is 0.84%
Which is in the same general ballpark as recent serology results from Switzerland, the Netherlands and Germany, and in a completely different one from the conclusions (if not the actual survey findings) of the Santa Clara County study that has sparked so much criticism
The low-end estimate from the Los Angeles County study implies a 0.36% infection fatality rate, so also in the same general ballpark.
A lot of people (including me) have been comparing these IFRs with a 0.1% fatality rate for influenza, but that's actually the fatality rate for *symptomatic* flu cases, and influenza can be asymptomatic as well. 0.04% may be better estimate https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1233740643249336320?s=20
So the emerging evidence from these serological surveys seems to be that the coronavirus is 10X+ deadlier than seasonal influenza, although it can of course vary with demographics, hospital capacity, etc.
