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My estimates after reading multiple reports:
20% of COVID is symptomatic
80% is asymptomatic but infectious
Symptomatic COVID
Hospitalization rate: 10%
ICU rate: 3%
Mortality rate
Symptomatic COVID ~2%.
7-10% if system overwhelmed.
COVID (including asymptomatic): 0.3-0.5%
20% of COVID is symptomatic
80% is asymptomatic but infectious
Symptomatic COVID
Hospitalization rate: 10%
ICU rate: 3%
Mortality rate
Symptomatic COVID ~2%.
7-10% if system overwhelmed.
COVID (including asymptomatic): 0.3-0.5%
Agree with @EricTopol that there are ~5 times more asymptomatic COVID cases than symptomatic. Not 50 times. The 50 times math doesn’t add up based on numbers we have seen so far. And those estimates are driven by false positive results with many serologic tests @ScottGottliebMD https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1252969683948462081">https://twitter.com/erictopol...
And my thread from a month ago is more true. It’s the numerator. No other health hazard has threatened the lives of as many people young and old as COVID. None in recent decades. Minimize this at your own peril. cc: @amymaxmen @sangerkatz https://twitter.com/vincentrk/status/1242848986517700609">https://twitter.com/vincentrk...
Great summary slide of possible % asymptomatic. It may be as high as 80%. But not 98-99%. Dr. Topol feels it could be as low as 40%. https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1253361879625330688">https://twitter.com/erictopol...
Some good numbers here. NY resembles overwhelmed system. Note these are outcome results of patients sick enough to be hospitalized. https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1253413951620050944">https://twitter.com/scottgott...
This is a great summary of the infection fatality rate (which I listed in my tweet as the mortality rate included asymptomatic infections). @AdamJKucharski @awgaffney https://twitter.com/adamjkucharski/status/1243466394991239170">https://twitter.com/adamjkuch...
The mortality rate that I estimate as 0.3-0.5% for COVID including asymptomatic infections is the infection fatality rate. This number is far far worse than the flu. That’s a 1 in 200 chance of dying if you get the infection.
