One of the things that has really smacked me in the face with this virus is how incredibly dumb super-smart people can be. I sometimes come across virus truthers who think COVID-19 is weaker than flu & more like a cold, & who have serious STEM backgrounds.

One of the things that's happening, at least for me, is I'm seeing where many of these ppl are just being contrarian, & their contrarianism leads them to say things that are obviously not smart. I think there's something structural going on, there.

Some corners of STEM (& punditry) give outsized rewards to novel/contrarian findings that turn out to be correct, & minimize the downside to being wrong. This is why STEM types did well with getting this right early. But there's a cohort of such folks who were late to the party..

... and who are now arriving at this story at a point where the contrarian take seems to them to be, "fatality rate is extremely low & this is very widespread already, so lockdowns are overkill & won't work anyway." That's their comfort zone.

These folks are confused on a few things. 1) a CFR of >1% was actually the contrarian take until quite recently, & 2) nobody beyond a handful of accelerationists is actually rooting for a high CFR -- certainly not "the media" that spent most of the pandemic downplaying CFR.

3) the ppl who are now resigned to a >1% CFR are not "ignoring" the contrary evidence from the homeless shelter or Santa Clara or wherever. Rather, they're treating it as counter to the bulk of evidence now have, & according it due skepticism b/c the bar is higher for it.