Another 4.4 million people filed for unemployment insurance last week, bringing the total to 24 million. We are helping people pay the bills through the unemployment system, this doesn't mean that their jobs are gone. [1/3]
Lots of people are speculating that the unemployment rate is 20 or 25%, but this is NOT a normal unemployment rate. More people are on temporary layoff than at any other time in our history. What matters is how many jobs will be there when we can reopen the economy. [2/3]
The scale of human suffering is also not the same as the unemployment rate again because Congress is helping to support incomes and many jobs will come back. But there will be a trail of devastation in the wake of this crisis and we can't yet know how big it will be. [3/x]
We still have no real public health plan and have yet to show leadership on developing protocols like mandating face masks, gloves, and temperature checks, new sanitation standards, and new distancing standards. [4/x]
The unemployment that matters will be the jobs that disappear. They will disappear not just because of the last few months but because people won't trust their fellow citizens enough to go to restaurants & shops, hire house cleaners, go to the gym, travel. [5/x]
Jobs will also end because state & local govt revenue declines & because people are afraid of routine and elective medical care. [6/x]
Instead of looking at those getting unemployment insurance and fretting about how many are out of work now, we need a plan for being able to work in a world with a highly communicable, potentially deadly virus. Only then will we start to be able to assess true unemployment.
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