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Great reporting @brycecovert @thenation including my new report w/ @CLASP_DC @nwlc on crisis economics of the childcare sector.
Cost to provide emergency care to essential workers now & keep rest restart-ready to support Americans’ future return to work: $9.6B/month. https://twitter.com/brycecovert/status/1253314879563456512
Cost to provide emergency care to essential workers now & keep rest restart-ready to support Americans’ future return to work: $9.6B/month. https://twitter.com/brycecovert/status/1253314879563456512
Child care providers survive on thin margins & crisis squeezes them btwn falling demand & increased difficulty delivering services, threatening to destroy many.
Unlike most other small businesses, each failed care provider can directly prevent many workers' return to employment
Unlike most other small businesses, each failed care provider can directly prevent many workers' return to employment
A lot of work & results in the report estimating:
- size of care market,
- # of essential workers' kids needing emergency care,
- how operating costs change during pandemic,
- $ needed per month
Thnx @becca_ullrich for a ton of heavy lifting. We did this in less than 2 weeks.
- size of care market,
- # of essential workers' kids needing emergency care,
- how operating costs change during pandemic,
- $ needed per month
Thnx @becca_ullrich for a ton of heavy lifting. We did this in less than 2 weeks.
The most-interesting part as an economist was working through how the pandemic changes the production function for safe childcare services in centers.
We assume safety requires max 10 people/room.
Doesn't affect infant-care production, given usual 8:2 child:teacher ratio.
We assume safety requires max 10 people/room.
Doesn't affect infant-care production, given usual 8:2 child:teacher ratio.
But it really reduces the number of toddlers and older kids who can be cared for given a short-run constraint on the # of rooms & severely reduces the child:staff ratios, boosting labor and facilities costs per child in care.
How does ability to produce safe care for 90 kids change in terms of inputs required? Roughly,
Rooms Staff
Usually: 5 10
Pandemic: 10 14
Details in technical appendix.
https://www.clasp.org/sites/default/files/AppendCCKeytoRecovCLASP.pdf
Rooms Staff
Usually: 5 10
Pandemic: 10 14
Details in technical appendix.
https://www.clasp.org/sites/default/files/AppendCCKeytoRecovCLASP.pdf
The pandemic imposes a huge, negative total factor productivity shock on the childcare sector, as well as reducing demand for services and demand for inputs.
This is a point that could be generalized to other sectors & inform macro analysis broadly.
This is a point that could be generalized to other sectors & inform macro analysis broadly.
The report benefited from big contributions @CatherineW2019 @kfgrobbins @SCSchmit & Karen Schulman.
Also quick-turn feedback @AngelaRachidi @RobGrunewald @sanforcl @AchievGapBuster @hktosun @jonathanborows2.
Also quick-turn feedback @AngelaRachidi @RobGrunewald @sanforcl @AchievGapBuster @hktosun @jonathanborows2.
