Today's congressional primary to watch is @candacefor24 v. @KimOlsonTx - a runoff in July to be the Dem nominee to flip a suburban Republican seat. /1

Olson, on the surface, looks like a DCCC-recruit cooked up in a lab: A conservative retired Air Force colonel who launched her campaign with a jingoistic banger of an ad that raised gobs of #resistance dollars. But there's a catch. https://twitter.com/KimOlsonTx/status/1242481558147170304

Olson, while serving in Iraq, was court-martialed for war profiteering. She pled guilty to lesser charges and left the military. In a general election, that just might be a bit of a liability. And so she does not have DCCC support. https://theintercept.com/2020/03/04/candace-valenzuela-democratic-primary-texas-24/

@candacefor24 meanwhile has an unusual backstory. I wrote earlier about @SamelysLopez, running in #NY15, who experienced homelessness as a child. So did Valenzuela. After Trump's election, she became part of the great awakening and won a school board seat. https://twitter.com/candacefor24/status/1143482724868657153?lang=en

Olson, as a vet, has the backing of the Super PAC Vote Vets https://m.votevets.org/press/votevets-endorses-kim-olson-for-congress (which supported Mayor Pete), but in an interesting intra-military contest, the vet group Common Defense endorsed against her and is backing Valenzuela https://twitter.com/commondefense/status/1247281341449805829?s=21

Valenzuela has largely consolidated progressive support: She has the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, state AFL-CIO, @PramilaJayapal, @AyannaPressley, and others. But because of Olson's electability issue, she also has establishment support:

@emilyslist almost never endorses when there are two viable women in the race, and even more rarely endorses the progressive of the two, yet they are in the race on behalf of Valenzuela. So is the CBC PAC and the CHC PAC (Valenzuela is Afro-Latina.)

Yesterday @ewarren endorsed her: https://twitter.com/candacefor24/status/1222177729992450050

Earlier today, the Texas Tribune highlighted Olson's war-profiteering problem, which could be deadly if voters learn about it. https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/23/kim-olson-air-force-exit-congress/

Despite all this, Olson finished first in the first round, beating Valenzuela by 10 points, so this is far from over. (She fell short of the 50 needed for a knockout win)

The winner will face Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, as the incumbent retired, seeing the writing on the wall. It's long been a GOP district but @BetoORourke carried it by 3 points in 2018 https://www.fox4news.com/news/beth-van-duyne-wins-republican-primary-for-us-house-district-24-while-democratic-race-appears-set-for-runoff