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COVID in India:
My parents, my siblings, & many friends live there. India has done well so far. How did they do it? What are the dangers ahead?
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1/ India has 21,797 cases so far; 691deaths. 100th case occurred in late March. @nramind @singersrinivas @nambath @the_hindu
My parents, my siblings, & many friends live there. India has done well so far. How did they do it? What are the dangers ahead?
Thread
1/ India has 21,797 cases so far; 691deaths. 100th case occurred in late March. @nramind @singersrinivas @nambath @the_hindu
2/ How has India contained COVID so far?
- Stopped foreigners from arriving since Mar 13; Screening & Quarantine for returning Indian citizens
- Ban on domestic flights since Mar 26
- Nationwide lockdown since Mar 24
- Great job of contact tracing @DrBeelaIAS @ramyakannan
- Stopped foreigners from arriving since Mar 13; Screening & Quarantine for returning Indian citizens
- Ban on domestic flights since Mar 26
- Nationwide lockdown since Mar 24
- Great job of contact tracing @DrBeelaIAS @ramyakannan
3/ What are the dangers ahead?
India’s overcrowding can lead to large outbreaks similar to migrant dorms in Singapore.
Maharashtra (state where Mumbai is), has >5000 cases (~25% of cases in India). There’s an outbreak in Dharavi— a crowded area where ~1 million poor people live
India’s overcrowding can lead to large outbreaks similar to migrant dorms in Singapore.
Maharashtra (state where Mumbai is), has >5000 cases (~25% of cases in India). There’s an outbreak in Dharavi— a crowded area where ~1 million poor people live
4/ India’s huge population and socioeconomic factors means (unless miraculously there is some cross immunity or effect of >100°F weather play a mitigating role) COVID can lead to a lot of loss of life. They cannot keep the lockdown going on endlessly either.
What can be done?
What can be done?
5/ My suggestion is universal mandatory masking for the foreseeable future for all people going out. #Masks4All
Continue ban on international arrivals until every arrival can be tested on arrival with COVID PCR/serology & safely quarantined. Reopen state by state slowly @nramind
Continue ban on international arrivals until every arrival can be tested on arrival with COVID PCR/serology & safely quarantined. Reopen state by state slowly @nramind
6/ India is also trying to develop a vaccine at breakneck speed. They can do it. A lot of generic meds we use in the US comes from India. The Indian government has controlled drug costs far better than the US— they can make meds and vaccines available. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/coronavirus-mgr-medical-university-develops-vaccine-candidate/article31410701.ece/amp/
7/ Here’s an excellent article by 2 respected doctors in India on a “social vaccine”. With correct messaging from the government on mitigation measures, India can slowly reopen. Core elements are social distancing, hand hygiene, universal masking. @nramind https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-shot-of-hope-with-a-game-changing-vaccine/article31383184.ece/amp/
8/ India also had thousands of COVID cases from people attending a single conference in Delhi. To prevent such outbreaks, India must ban all conferences >50 people for foreseeable future even after reopening. Virtual meetings till it’s safe. @HaricharanMusic
9/Considering what is happening in Europe & the US, the Indian government has managed to do a great job of controlling COVID, and their actions have no doubt prevented a huge number of deaths. I am very impressed by actions & public health updates by Indian officials. @DrBeelaIAS
10/ I am going to be following what’s happening in India closely. @the_hindu has a COVID resource ebook available in English and many Indian languages for information. Very useful. @nramind @nambath https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindu.com/news/resources/the-hindus-e-book-on-covid-19-in-multiple-indian-languages/article31174374.ece/amp/
11/ Mumbai is the place I worry about. Please add to thread if you have additional insights. I think they have to go into Singapore mode: do the things Singapore is currently doing. It won’t be easy.
12/ Statewise COVID tracker @the_hindu is amazing and shows trajectory. When reopening, it will have to be state by state based on numbers. And continue to limit/block interstate travel. Continue to ban domestic flights. @PSampathkumarMD @nramind https://www.thehindu.com/data/covid-19-state-wise-tracker-for-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-testing-rates/article31248444.ece
